March 2008 Update On BC Provincial Politics

BC Liberals (46%, Up 1 Point) Ahead Of NDP (34%, Down 1 Point) And Greens (16%, Unchanged)Half Of Voters Approve Of Performance Of Both Gordon Campbell (47%, Down 2 Points) And Carole James (50%, Down 5 Points)Campbell (50%) Leads James (38%) As Choice For Best Premier

Tuesday, March 18, 2008

Vancouver, BC – A new Ipsos Reid poll shows no significant change in voter support in British Columbia. The BC Liberals (46%, up 1 point from December) hold a 12 point lead over the NDP (34%, down 1 point) among decided voters, with the Green Party in third place at 16% support (unchanged).British Columbians continue to be split in their assessment of Gordon Campbell’s performance as Premier. About half (47%, down 2 points from December) of voters say they approve of Campbell’s performance as Premier, while the other half (49%, up 3 points) disapprove.

Carole James also has the approval of about half of BC voters. Currently, 50% of British Columbians approve of her performance as NDP and Opposition leader, while one-third (34%) disapprove. Her approval rating is down 5 points from December and her disapproval rating is up 4 points.

Just as the BC Liberals lead the NDP by 12 points in decided voter support, Gordon Campbell is also a 12 point favourite over Carole James as the leader who would make the better Premier of British Columbia. Gordon Campbell is the choice of 50% of British Columbians, compared to 38% for Carole James.

In other results, about half (51%) of British Columbians say they approve of the overall performance of the BC Liberal government. This is down a statistically insignificant 3 points from September of 2007.

These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid telephone poll conducted between March 5 and March 10, 2008. The poll is based on a randomly selected sample of 800 adult British Columbians. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within ± 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population of BC been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual BC population according to 2006 Census data.

BC Liberals (46%, Up 1 Point) Ahead Of NDP (34%, Down 1 Point) And Greens (16%, Unchanged)

There has been no change in voter preferences over the last three months. The BC Liberals currently have the support of 46% (up 1 point from December) of the province’s decided voters and a 12 point lead over the NDP at 34% (down 1 point). The Green Party currently has the support of 16% (unchanged) of decided voters. These results exclude the 17% of British Columbians who are undecided or express no preference.

  • The BC Liberals lead by 15 points in the Lower Mainland (50% Lib vs. 35% NDP) and by a smaller 6 point margin in the rest of BC (39% Lib vs. 33% NDP).
  • The BC Liberals lead by 18 points among men (50% Lib vs. 32% NDP) and by only 4 points among women (41% Lib vs. 37% NDP).
  • The BC Liberals lead by 24 points among higher income households (54% Lib vs. 30% NDP) and by 13 points among middle income households (47% Lib vs. 34% NDP). The NDP leads by 14 points among lower income households (44% NDP vs. 30% Lib).

Half Of Voters Approve Of Performance Of Both Gordon Campbell (47%, Down 2 Points) And Carole James (50%, Down 5 Points)

British Columbians continue to be split in their assessment of Gordon Campbell’s performance as Premier. About half (47%, down 2 points) of voters say they approve of Campbell’s performance, including 14% “strongly” and 34% “moderately”. A similar proportion (49%, up 3 points) disapproves of his performance, including 32% “strongly” and 17% “moderately”.

  • Campbell’s approval rating is higher in the Lower Mainland (51% vs. 42% rest of BC) and with higher income households (57% higher vs. 47% middle, 37% lower).

Carole James’ approval rating as NDP and Opposition leader has slipped 5 points from December. Currently, half (50%, down 5 points) of British Columbians approve of her performance, including 10% “strongly” and 40% “moderately”. Roughly one-third (34%, up 4 points) of residents say they disapprove of her performance (16% “strongly”, 19% “moderately”).

  • James’ approval rating is slightly higher among women (53%) than among men (46%).

Campbell (50%) Leads James (38%) As Choice For Best Premier

Gordon Campbell (50%) leads Carole James (38%) by 12 points as British Columbians’ choice as to which leader would make the better Premier of British Columbia. The remaining 12% of British Columbians are undecided.

  • Campbell leads by 18 points in the Lower Mainland (53% Campbell vs. 35% James) and by 5 points in the rest of BC (47% Campbell vs. 42% James).
  • Campbell leads by 18 points among men (54% Campbell vs. 36% James) and by 7 points among women (47% Campbell vs. 40% James).
  • Campbell leads by 23 points among higher income households (56% Campbell vs. 33% James) and by 21 points among middle income households (57% Campbell vs. 36% James). James leads by 7 points among lower income households (46% James vs. 39% Campbell).

Half (51%) Approve Of Overall Performance Of BC Liberal Government

Half (51%) of British Columbians say they approve of the performance of the BC Liberal Government, including 15% who “strongly” approve and 36% who “moderately” approve. This approval rating is down 3 points from September 2007. Meanwhile, more than four-in-ten (43%, up 8 points) disapprove of the government’s performance, including 24% who “strongly” disapprove and 20% who “somewhat” disapprove.

  • Government approval is higher among higher/middle income households (60% higher, 56% middle vs. 41% lower).

For more information on this news release, please contact:
Kyle Braid
Vice-President
Ipsos Reid
Public Affairs
778-373-5130
Kyle.Braid@ipsos-reid.com

About Ipsos Reid
Ipsos Reid is Canada's market intelligence leader, the country's leading provider of public opinion research, and research partner for loyalty and forecasting and modelling insights. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos Reid employs more than 600 research professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in the country, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and online panels. Ipsos Reid's marketing research and public affairs practices offer the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada, all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, Ipsos Reid offers syndicated information or custom solutions across key sectors of the Canadian economy, including consumer packaged goods, financial services, automotive, retail, and technology & telecommunications. Ipsos Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.

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March 2008 Update On BC Provincial Politics

Contact

Kyle Braid
Senior Vice President / Vice-Président Senior, Canada
Ipsos Public Affairs
+1 778 373 5130
kyle.braid@ipsos.com