NDP Steal Green Vote, But BC Liberals Remain 8 Points Ahead

BC Liberals (47%, up 1 point) Lead NDP (39%, up 4 points) and Greens (10%, down 5 points) Campbell (50%) Leads James (33%) as Best Premier, but Few (11%) say Party Leader is Main Reason for VoteSupport for BC-STV Plummets (52% Status Quo vs. 33% STV)

Saturday, May 09, 2009

Vancouver, BC - With only a few days remaining in the BC Election campaign, a new Ipsos Reid poll reveals the race is tightening, but the BC Liberals are still heavy favourites to win a third consecutive majority government. The NDP currently has the support of 39% of decided voters, an increase of 4 percentage points from a March Ipsos Reid pre-election poll. However, the BC Liberals continue to lead at 47% support (up 1 point), 8 points ahead of the NDP. Green Party support has fallen to 10%, down 5 points from March. These results exclude the 11% of British Columbians who are undecided or express no preference.

  • The BC Liberals lead by 15 points in the Lower Mainland (51% Lib vs. 36% NDP), while the two main parties are effectively tied in the rest of the province (41% Lib vs. 43% NDP).
  • There continues to be a substantial gender gap in voter preferences. Men favour the BC Liberals by 16 points (51% Lib vs. 35% NDP), while women are equally split between the two main parties (43% Lib vs. 43% NDP).

Likely Voters: There are a couple of ways to look at the firmness of the vote. One measure is to look at voters who are most likely to go out and vote on Election Day. Looking only at voters who say they are “absolutely certain to vote” (66% of British Columbians), the BC Liberal lead expands to 11 points among decided voters (Lib 49%, NDP 38%, Green 11%).

Vote Switching: A second measure of vote strength is to look at the percentage of each party’s supporters who might still change their mind. Overall, two-in-ten (21%) decided voters say there is still a good chance they will change their mind and vote for some other party’s candidate on Election Day. Vote support is firmest among BC Liberal voters (15% might change mind) and weakest among Green supporters (32% might change mind). Almost one-quarter (24%) of NDP voters say there is a good chance they might change their mind.

Leadership: Gordon Campbell (50%) leads Carole James (33%) by a wide 17 point margin as the leader who would make the best Premier of British Columbia. Green Party leader Jane Sterk lags at 5% support, with 13% undecided.

The importance of leadership is downplayed by the finding that only 11% of decided voters say the party leader is their main reason for supporting their vote choice. Nearly half (49%) of voters say their choice is based mostly on a party’s stance on the issues. Two-in-ten (21%) say they are supporting a particular party because of their local candidate, while 19% cite other reasons.

Electoral Referendum: It does not appear that BC-STV has much chance of passing. Only 33% of British Columbians say they plan to vote for BC-STV, while 52% plan to vote for the existing First-Past-The-Post system. Fifteen percent said they are undecided or will not vote in the referendum.

A March Ipsos Reid survey conducted for No STV had support for STV at 43% (10 points higher than today) compared to 41% (11 points lower than today) for the existing electoral system.

Among decided voters only, 61% say they will vote for the existing electoral system, compared to 39% for STV. Support for STV is strong among Green voters (65% support STV), split among NDP voters (47% support STV) and weak among BC Liberal voters (25% support STV).

Two-in-ten (21%) decided voters say there is still a good chance they will change their mind and vote for the other referendum option on Election Day, including 22% of First-Past-The-Post supporters and 19% of STV supporters.

These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid telephone poll conducted between May 4 and 7, 2009. The poll is based on a randomly selected sample of 800 adult British Columbians. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within ± 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population of BC been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual BC population according to 2006 Census data.

For more information on this news release, please contact:
Kyle Braid
Vice President
Ipsos Reid Public Affairs
(778) 373-5130
kyle.braid@ipsos.com

About Ipsos Reid

Ipsos Reid is Canada’s market intelligence leader, the country’s leading provider of public opinion research, and research partner for loyalty and forecasting and modelling insights. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos Reid employs more than 600 research professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in the country, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and online panels. Ipsos Reid’s marketing research and public affairs practices offer the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada, all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, Ipsos Reid offers syndicated information or custom solutions across key sectors of the Canadian economy, including consumer packaged goods, financial services, automotive, retail, health and technology & telecommunications. Ipsos Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.

To learn more, visit www.ipsos.ca.

About Ipsos
Ipsos is a leading global survey-based market research company, owned and managed by research professionals. Ipsos helps interpret, simulate, and anticipate the needs and responses of consumers, customers, and citizens around the world.

Member companies assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media. They measure public opinion around the globe.

Ipsos member companies offer expertise in advertising, customer loyalty, marketing, media, and public affairs research, as well as forecasting, modeling, and consulting. Ipsos has a full line of custom, syndicated, omnibus, panel, and online research products and services, guided by industry experts and bolstered by advanced analytics and methodologies. The company was founded in 1975 and has been publicly traded since 1999.

In 2008, Ipsos generated global revenues of €979.3 million ($1.34 billion U.S.).

Visit www.ipsos.com to learn more about Ipsos offerings and capabilities.

Ipsos, listed on the Eurolist of Euronext – Comp B, is part of SBF 120 and the Mid-100 Index, adheres to the Next Prime segment and is eligible to the Deferred Settlement System. Isin FR0000073298, Reuters ISOS.PA, Bloomberg IPS:FP


NDP Steal Green Vote, But BC Liberals 
Remain 8 Points Ahead

Contact

Kyle Braid
Senior Vice President / Vice-Président Senior, Canada
Ipsos Public Affairs
+1 778 373 5130
kyle.braid@ipsos.com