Vancouver, BC - On May 12th, BC voters elected Gordon Campbell and the BC Liberals to a third consecutive majority government, and rejected BC-STV in the referendum on electoral reform. Ipsos Reid is the only pollster to hit the mark in both the general party election and the referendum.
In the general party election, Ipsos Reid’s final poll correctly forecast a Liberal victory and was within the margin of error (± 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20) for all parties. The final poll compared to the actual results was BC Liberals 47% (actual 46%), NDP 39% (actual 42%), Green 10% (actual 8%) and Others 4% (actual 4%).
In addition, Ipsos Reid was the only pollster within the margin of error on the referendum on electoral reform. The final poll pegged support for BC-STV at 39% - exactly the support the proposed electoral system received on Election Day.
Ipsos Reid Vice President Kyle Braid comments, "As Canada's market and public opinion research leader, we feel that it is our obligation to always be there to report objectively on what voters are really thinking about the issues and players in the campaign. We stop the spin, and bring the truth of scientifically-measured voter opinion into the debate. We did it in the BC Election Campaign with our campaign polls, our debate night poll, and our election day exit poll."
Ipsos Reid’s final election survey was a telephone poll conducted between May 4 and 7, 2009. The poll was based on a randomly selected sample of 800 adult British Columbians. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within ± 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population of BC been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual BC population according to 2006 Census data.
For more information on this news release, please contact:
Ipsos Reid Public Affairs
For The Record: Other Recent Ipsos Polling and Actual Election Outcomes
- US Presidential Election 2008: Ipsos was the most accurate of 22 firms polling the Presidential race: 53% Obama/Biden (actual 52.7%), 46% McCain/Palin (actual 46.0%).
- Canadian Federal Election 2008: Ipsos Reid's last poll compared to the actual results was Conservatives 34% (actual 37.65%), Liberals 29% (actual 26.26%), NDP 18% (actual 18.18%), Green 8% (actual 6.78%), and Bloc 9% (actual 9.98%).
- Alberta Election, 2008: Ipsos Reid's last poll (conducted mid-campaign) compared to the actual results was Progressive Conservative 49% (actual 52.66%), Liberal 28% (actual 26.37%), NDP 14% (actual 8.52%), Wildrose Alliance 5% (actual 6.77%), and Green 4% (actual 4.58%).
- Ontario Election, 2007: Ipsos Reid's last poll compared to the actual results was Liberal 43% (actual 42.25%), Conservative 32% (actual 31.62%), NDP 18% (actual 16.77%), and Green 6% (actual 8.02%).
- BC Election, 2005: Ipsos Reid's last poll compared to the actual results was Liberals 47% (actual 45.8%), NDP 39% (actual 41.52%) and Green 11% (actual 9.17%).
About Ipsos Reid
Ipsos Reid is Canada’s market intelligence leader, the country’s leading provider of public opinion research, and research partner for loyalty and forecasting and modelling insights. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos Reid employs more than 600 research professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in the country, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and online panels. Ipsos Reid’s marketing research and public affairs practices offer the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada, all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, Ipsos Reid offers syndicated information or custom solutions across key sectors of the Canadian economy, including consumer packaged goods, financial services, automotive, retail, health and technology & telecommunications. Ipsos Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.
To learn more, visit www.ipsos.ca.
Ipsos is a leading global survey-based market research company, owned and managed by research professionals. Ipsos helps interpret, simulate, and anticipate the needs and responses of consumers, customers, and citizens around the world.
Member companies assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media. They measure public opinion around the globe.
Ipsos member companies offer expertise in advertising, customer loyalty, marketing, media, and public affairs research, as well as forecasting, modeling, and consulting. Ipsos has a full line of custom, syndicated, omnibus, panel, and online research products and services, guided by industry experts and bolstered by advanced analytics and methodologies. The company was founded in 1975 and has been publicly traded since 1999.
In 2008, Ipsos generated global revenues of €979.3 million ($1.34 billion U.S.).
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