Washington, DC – Ipsos’ recent poll of 600 registered voters in Nevada shows that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is polling just four points ahead of his opponent Sharron Angle among likely voters. The senate race will be a very close one, and our data shows that the outcome will hinge on turnout; Republicans are far more likely than Democrats to say they are ‘certain’ they will vote this November (81% vs. 64%).
Reid’s position as Majority Leader may help him hold his seat, with more than half of voters (52%) agreeing that his role as Majority Leader has been a ‘good thing’ for Nevada – although just 17% of Republicans agree with this sentiment compared to 84 % of Democrats.
Angle appears to be benefiting somewhat from her Tea Party support: 25% of Republicans say they are more likely to support her as a result of this alliance.
Gubernatorial candidate Rory Reid is currently 11 points behind his Republican opponent Brian Sandoval among likely voters – although the race is much closer if we look at all registered voters (rather than just those who are likely to vote). This further underlines the importance of turnout at this election; based on these numbers, Reid cannot with without a very high Democratic turnout on Election Day.
The political climate of Nevada certainly signals that they are ready for some changes: current Governor Jim Gibbons is unpopular with a 68% disapproval rating, and 71% of Nevadans think that things in the state are ‘heading off on the wrong track’. The reason for much of this concern is the economy and jobs – three quarters (74%) list this as the biggest problem facing Nevada, a figure that is fairly high even in this economic climate. Other issues mentioned were:
- Just over a quarter (27%) list education as one of the state’s biggest problems
- 12% are concerned about Government, politics and politicians generally – which includes both state and national level concerns
- Housing (9%) and budget/deficit (7%) are also listed as key concerns
- Smaller proportions (4% each) are concerned about healthcare and immigration
The survey finished with a question explicitly on the issue of immigration. Respondents were asked if they feel that a law like Arizona’s should be passed in Nevada. The data shows just under two-thirds (63%) are in favor of a similar law being passed in Nevada, which is in line with public opinion nationally. Support for this idea is highest among Republicans (88%) and Independents (71%) but is also fairly well received by Democrats (42%, of which 23% ‘strongly favor’ the idea).
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