Sam Katz Heavy Favourite for Third Term as Winnipeg Mayor

Katz (59%) leads Wasylycia-Leis (39%) by Wide Margin among Decided Voters

Gap Narrows to 9 Points among those Absolutely Certain to Vote (54% Katz, 45% Wasylycia-Leis)

Saturday, October 23, 2010

Winnipeg, MB – Sam Katz enters the final week of the Winnipeg mayoral campaign with a substantial lead over challenger Judy Wasylycia-Leis and appears to be a heavy favourite to win a third consecutive term. A new Ipsos Reid / Global News poll finds that Katz has the support of 59% of decided voters – a 20 point lead over Wasylycia-Leis, who has the support of 39% of decided voters. Rav Gill (2%) and Brad Gross (1%) both have minimal support. These results are among decided voters and exclude the 22% of Winnipeg residents who are undecided or express no preference.

  • Katz leads in all regions and across almost all demographic groups. Wasylycia-Leis is tied with Katz among residents who have completed a university education (both at 50%) and somewhat close among those over the age of 55 years (Katz 53% vs. Wasylycia-Leis 46%).

The good news for Wasylycia-Leis is that her voters are more committed to go the polls and vote on Election Day. Among those who say they are “absolutely certain” to vote, Katz’s lead drops to 9 points (54% Katz vs. 45% Wasylycia-Leis).

There is still an opportunity for some vote switching as two-in-ten (20%) decided voters describe their vote as “just a leaning vote” at this time. The potential for vote switching is roughly equal for both leading contenders, with 20% of Katz voters and 19% of Wasylycia-Leis voters saying their support is “just a leaning” at this time.

Voter turnout should be higher than the 38% recorded in the 2002 election, with 60% of residents indicating they are “absolutely certain” to vote on Election Day. As a reference point, the recent Calgary election had a 54% turnout after 58% told Ipsos Reid they were “absolutely certain” to vote.

These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid telephone poll conducted between October 18 and 20, 2010. The poll is based on a randomly selected sample of 500 Winnipeg residents aged 18 or older. With a sample of this size, the results are considered accurate to within ± 4.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what they would have been had the entire adult population of Winnipeg been polled. The margin of error will be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Winnipeg population aged 18 or older according to 2006 Census data.

For more information on this news release, please contact:
Kyle Braid
Vice President
Ipsos Reid Public Affairs
(778) 373-5000
kyle.braid@ipsos.com

About Ipsos Reid

Ipsos Reid is Canada's market intelligence leader, the country's leading provider of public opinion research, and research partner for loyalty and forecasting and modelling insights. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos Reid employs more than 600 research professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in the country, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and online panels. Ipsos Reid's marketing research and public affairs practices offer the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada, all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, Ipsos Reid offers syndicated information or custom solutions across key sectors of the Canadian economy, including consumer packaged goods, financial services, automotive, retail, and technology & telecommunications. Ipsos Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.

To learn more, please visit www.ipsos.ca.

About Ipsos

Ipsos is a leading global survey-based market research company, owned and managed by research professionals. Ipsos helps interpret, simulate, and anticipate the needs and responses of consumers, customers, and citizens around the world.

Member companies assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media. They measure public opinion around the globe. Ipsos member companies offer expertise in advertising, customer loyalty, marketing, media, and public affairs research, as well as forecasting, modeling, and consulting. Ipsos has a full line of custom, syndicated, omnibus, panel, and online research products and services, guided by industry experts and bolstered by advanced analytics and methodologies. The company was founded in 1975 and has been publicly traded since 1999. In 2009, Ipsos generated global revenues of €943.7 million ($1.33 billion U.S.).

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Sam Katz Heavy Favourite for Third Term as Winnipeg Mayor

Contact

Kyle Braid
Senior Vice President / Vice-Président Senior, Canada
Ipsos Public Affairs
+1 778 373 5130
kyle.braid@ipsos.com