Rating Possible BC Liberal Leadership Contenders

Dianne Watts and Carole Taylor are Early Public Favourites

Friday, November 05, 2010

Vancouver, BC – A new Ipsos Reid online poll taken in the wake of Gordon Campbell’s surprise resignation shows that only three of the rumoured leadership contenders have a strong image with British Columbians. Of the 14 contenders tested in this poll, only Dianne Watts, Carole Taylor and John Furlong generate more positive than negative impressions.

Surrey Mayor, Dianne Watts has 43% positive impressions versus 13% negative impressions, for a NET impression score of +30. Former Finance Minister, Carole Taylor is next best with a NET impression score of +21, followed closely by 2010 Games CEO, John Furlong at +19.

Federal Minister, Chuck Strahl is next best with a NET impression score of -9, followed by former provincial Minister, Christy Clark at -14. Among current Cabinet members, Bill Bennett rates best (NET -16), while Colin Hansen rates worst (-41).


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Impressions among 2009 BC Liberal Voters: Among those who voted for the BC Liberals in 2009, impressions are most positive for Dianne Watts (NET +41), Carole Taylor (+41) and John Furlong (+30). Chuck Strahl (+7) and Christy Clark (+4) also have NET positive impression ratings among BC Liberal voters.

Among past Liberal voters, the ratings are most negative for Kash Heed (NET -33).


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Impressions among 2009 NDP Voters: Among those who voted for the NDP in 2009, impressions are most positive for Dianne Watts (NET +21), John Furlong (+17) and Carole Taylor (+11). They are most negative for Colin Hansen (-71) and Kevin Falcon (-52).


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Candidate Most Likely to Generate Interest in Voting Liberal

The poll also asked respondents to select the leadership candidate that would be most likely to get them to consider voting for the BC Liberals in the next provincial election.

On this measure, Dianne Watts (16%) and Carole Taylor (15%) are basically tied for tops in support. John Furlong is third at 9%, followed by Chuck Strahl (4%), Colin Hansen (3%) and Christy Clark (3%). Nearly three-in-ten (29%) residents say that none of the contenders would be likely to get them to consider voting Liberal.

  • Among 2009 BC Liberal voters, Carole Taylor (21%) has a slight lead over Dianne Watts (17%), with John Furlong (12%) in third place.
  • Among 2009 NDP voters, Carole Taylor (16%) also has a slight lead over Dianne Watts (13%), with John Furlong (4%) in a distant third place. Nearly half (48%) of past NDP voters say that “none” of the contenders is likely to get them to consider voting for the BC Liberals.

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These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid online poll conducted on behalf of Global BC. The poll was fielded November 3-4, 2010 with a representative sample of 600 adult British Columbia residents. A survey with an unweighted probability sample of this size and a 100% response rate would have an estimated margin of error of ±4.0 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The margin of error will be larger for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual British Columbia population according to 2006 Census data. The polling was conducted using Ipsos Reid’s “Voice of the West Interactive Forum” – an online panel of more than 6,500 British Columbians who have been recruited to match the overall characteristics of the adult residents of the province.

For more information on this news release, please contact:
Kyle Braid
Vice President
Ipsos Reid Public Affairs
(778) 373-5000
kyle.braid@ipsos.com

About Ipsos Reid

Ipsos Reid is Canada's market intelligence leader, the country's leading provider of public opinion research, and research partner for loyalty and forecasting and modelling insights. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos Reid employs more than 600 research professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in the country, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and online panels. Ipsos Reid's marketing research and public affairs practices offer the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada, all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, Ipsos Reid offers syndicated information or custom solutions across key sectors of the Canadian economy, including consumer packaged goods, financial services, automotive, retail, and technology & telecommunications. Ipsos Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.

To learn more, please visit www.ipsos.ca.

About Ipsos

Ipsos is a leading global survey-based market research company, owned and managed by research professionals. Ipsos helps interpret, simulate, and anticipate the needs and responses of consumers, customers, and citizens around the world.

Member companies assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media. They measure public opinion around the globe. Ipsos member companies offer expertise in advertising, customer loyalty, marketing, media, and public affairs research, as well as forecasting, modeling, and consulting. Ipsos has a full line of custom, syndicated, omnibus, panel, and online research products and services, guided by industry experts and bolstered by advanced analytics and methodologies. The company was founded in 1975 and has been publicly traded since 1999. In 2009, Ipsos generated global revenues of €943.7 million ($1.33 billion U.S.).

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Rating Possible BC Liberal Leadership Contenders

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Contact

Kyle Braid
Senior Vice President / Vice-Président Senior, Canada
Ipsos Public Affairs
+1 778 373 5130
kyle.braid@ipsos.com