Rating Possible BC NDP Leadership Contenders

Mike Farnworth Rates Best; Adrian Dix and Corky Evans Also Viewed Positively

Tuesday, December 07, 2010

Vancouver, BC – Following Carole James’ announcement that she will step down as NDP leader, Ipsos Reid completed an online poll to gauge British Columbians’ impressions of 17 possible leadership contenders. The results show that only 3 of these 17 possible contenders generate more positive than negative impressions.

Mike Farnworth (MLA) has 31% positive impressions versus 16% negative impressions, for a NET impression score of +15, best of the 17 possible contenders. Corky Evans (former MLA) is next best with a NET impression score of +7, followed closely by Adrian Dix (MLA) at +6.

Jenny Kwan (MLA) has the highest positive impressions (34%) of any of the possible contenders. She also has by far the highest negative impressions (37%) of any current MLA on our list.

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Impressions among 2009 NDP Voters: Among those who voted for the NDP in 2009, impressions are most positive for Adrian Dix (NET +32), Mike Farnworth (+27) and Corky Evans (+24).

Among past NDP voters, the ratings are most negative for Moe Sihota, NDP President and former MLA (NET -29).

Among past NDP voters, Jenny Kwan has the highest level of positive impressions (43%) and the second highest level of negative impressions (34%).

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Impressions among 2009 BC Liberal Voters: Among those who voted for the BC Liberals in 2009, only Mike Farnworth has more positive (29%) than negative (21%) impression ratings (NET +8).

Past BC Liberal voters are most negative toward Moe Sihota (NET -59) and Jim Sinclair, BC Federation of Labour President (NET -55).

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Candidate Most Likely to Generate Interest in Voting NDP

The poll also asked respondents to select the leadership candidate that would be most likely to get them to consider voting for the NDP in the next provincial election. The results show that no single individual stands out from the pack at this point.

On this measure, the top three possible contenders are Jenny Kwan (11%), Vancouver Mayor Gregor Robertson (9%) and Mike Farnworth (9%). Three-in-ten (30%) residents say that none of the contenders would be likely to get them to consider voting NDP.

  • Among 2009 NDP voters, Jenny Kwan (16%) leads, followed by Mike Farnworth (12%), Gregor Robertson (10%), Jim Sinclair (9%), Adrian Dix (8%) and Corky Evans (7%).
  • Among 2009 BC Liberal voters, the top three choices are Jenny Kwan (9%), Gregor Robertson (9%) and Mike Farnworth (8%). More than half (52%) of past BC Liberal voters say that “none” of the contenders is likely to get them to consider voting for the NDP.

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These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid online poll conducted on behalf of Global BC. The poll was fielded December 6-7, 2010 with a representative sample of 1,400 adult British Columbia residents. A survey with an unweighted probability sample of this size and a 100% response rate would have an estimated margin of error of ±2.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The margin of error will be larger for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual British Columbia population according to 2006 Census data. The polling was conducted using Ipsos Reid’s “Voice of the West Interactive Forum” – an online panel of more than 6,500 British Columbians who have been recruited to match the overall characteristics of the adult residents of the province.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Kyle Braid
Vice President
Ipsos Reid Public Affairs
(778) 373-5130

About Ipsos Reid

Ipsos Reid is Canada's market intelligence leader, the country's leading provider of public opinion research, and research partner for loyalty and forecasting and modelling insights. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos Reid employs more than 600 research professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in the country, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and online panels. Ipsos Reid's marketing research and public affairs practices offer the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada, all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, Ipsos Reid offers syndicated information or custom solutions across key sectors of the Canadian economy, including consumer packaged goods, financial services, automotive, retail, and technology & telecommunications. Ipsos Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.

To learn more, please visit www.ipsos.ca.

About Ipsos

Ipsos is a leading global survey-based market research company, owned and managed by research professionals. Ipsos helps interpret, simulate, and anticipate the needs and responses of consumers, customers, and citizens around the world.

Member companies assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media. They measure public opinion around the globe. Ipsos member companies offer expertise in advertising, customer loyalty, marketing, media, and public affairs research, as well as forecasting, modeling, and consulting. Ipsos has a full line of custom, syndicated, omnibus, panel, and online research products and services, guided by industry experts and bolstered by advanced analytics and methodologies. The company was founded in 1975 and has been publicly traded since 1999. In 2009, Ipsos generated global revenues of €943.7 million ($1.33 billion U.S.).

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Rating Possible BC NDP Leadership Contenders

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Kyle Braid
Senior Vice President / Vice-Président Senior, Canada
Ipsos Public Affairs
+1 778 373 5130