Rating BC Liberal Leadership Contenders

Christy Clark Tops in Public Opinion

Thursday, December 09, 2010

Vancouver, BC – On the day that Christy Clark announces that she will enter the race for the BC Liberal leadership, a new Ipsos Reid poll (conducted before the announcement) shows she has an advantage in public opinion over her leadership rivals. She is the only one of the five declared candidates with more positive than negative impressions.

Among all British Columbians, Christy Clark currently has 39% positive impressions versus 28% negative impressions, for a NET impression score of +11. George Abbott is next best with roughly the same number as positive (23%) and negative impressions (24%) ratings for a NET score of -1. The ratings are more negative for Moira Stilwell (-12), Mike de Jong (-18) and Kevin Falcon (-23).

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Impressions among 2009 BC Liberal Voters: Christy Clark has by the far the most positive image among those who voted for the BC Liberals in 2009. Nearly six-in-ten (58%) past Liberal voters have a positive impression of Clark versus 15% with a negative impression, for a NET score of +43.

Three of the other four candidates have more positive than negative impressions among past Liberal voters including George Abbott (NET +19), Kevin Falcon (+10) and Mike de Jong (+7).

Moira Stilwell has a slightly negative NET score of -3, but it’s clear that few British Columbians have developed any impression of her yet.

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Impressions among 2009 NDP Voters: Christy Clark’s positive ratings do not carry over to those who voted for the NDP in 2009. In fact, NET impression scores are negative for all five BC Liberal leadership candidates.

Among past NDP voters, the ratings are best for George Abbott (NET -18), Christy Clark (-21) and Moira Stilwell (-26). They are much more negative for both Kevin Falcon (-56) and Mike de Jong (-47).

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Candidate Most Likely to Generate Interest in Voting BC Liberal

The poll also asked respondents to select the leadership candidate that would be most likely to get them to consider voting for the BC Liberals in the next provincial election. On this measure, Christy Clark stands out from her rivals, especially among past Liberal voters.

Overall, one-quarter (25%) of British Columbians say that Christy Clark is the leadership candidate that would be most likely to get them to consider voting for the BC Liberals in the next election. George Abbott (9%) and Kevin Falcon (8%) are well back in second and third place, respectively.

  • Among 2009 BC Liberal voters, Christy Clark (35%) has almost as much support as the four other contenders combined. Kevin Falcon is second at 17%, followed by George Abbott (13%), Mike de Jong (8%) and Moira Stilwell (1%).
  • Among 2009 NDP voters, Christy Clark leads at just 16%, followed by George Abbott at 7%. Notably, six-in-ten (60%) past NDP voters say that none of the candidates would be likely to get them to consider voting for the BC Liberals.

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These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid online poll conducted on behalf of Global BC. The poll was fielded December 6-7, 2010 with a representative sample of 1,400 adult British Columbia residents. A survey with an unweighted probability sample of this size and a 100% response rate would have an estimated margin of error of ±2.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The margin of error will be larger for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual British Columbia population according to 2006 Census data. The polling was conducted using Ipsos Reid’s “Voice of the West Interactive Forum” – an online panel of more than 6,500 British Columbians who have been recruited to match the overall characteristics of the adult residents of the province.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Kyle Braid
Vice President
Ipsos Reid Public Affairs
(778) 373-5130

About Ipsos Reid

Ipsos Reid is Canada's market intelligence leader, the country's leading provider of public opinion research, and research partner for loyalty and forecasting and modelling insights. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos Reid employs more than 600 research professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in the country, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and online panels. Ipsos Reid's marketing research and public affairs practices offer the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada, all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, Ipsos Reid offers syndicated information or custom solutions across key sectors of the Canadian economy, including consumer packaged goods, financial services, automotive, retail, and technology & telecommunications. Ipsos Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.

To learn more, please visit www.ipsos.ca.

About Ipsos

Ipsos is a leading global survey-based market research company, owned and managed by research professionals. Ipsos helps interpret, simulate, and anticipate the needs and responses of consumers, customers, and citizens around the world.

Member companies assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media. They measure public opinion around the globe. Ipsos member companies offer expertise in advertising, customer loyalty, marketing, media, and public affairs research, as well as forecasting, modeling, and consulting. Ipsos has a full line of custom, syndicated, omnibus, panel, and online research products and services, guided by industry experts and bolstered by advanced analytics and methodologies. The company was founded in 1975 and has been publicly traded since 1999. In 2009, Ipsos generated global revenues of €943.7 million ($1.33 billion U.S.).

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Rating BC Liberal Leadership Contenders

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Kyle Braid
Senior Vice President / Vice-Président Senior, Canada
Ipsos Public Affairs
+1 778 373 5130