And They’re Off … PCs and Wildrose Tied for Lead Out of the Gate

PCs (38%) and Wildrose (38%) Tied in Voter Support

Monday, March 26, 2012

Calgary, AB – As Albertans prepare to go the polls on April 23rd, a new Ipsos Reid poll shows the race could not be any closer. Alison Redford’s Progressive Conservatives and Danielle Smith’s Wildrose are currently tied, with both having the support of 38% of the province’s decided voters. The other parties are well back of the two main contenders, with the NDP at 12%, the Liberals at 11% and other parties at 2%. These results exclude the 22% of Albertans who are undecided or express no preference.

The Regions are Different

The regional results show the PCs leading in Edmonton, Wildrose leading in Calgary and the two parties in a statistical dead head in the rest of the province.

  • In Edmonton, the PCs lead Wildrose by 38% to 24%, with the Liberals at 17% and the New Democrats at 16%.
  • In Calgary, Wildrose leads the PCs by 44% to 36%, with the NDP at 10% and the Liberals at 8%.
  • In the rest of Alberta, Wildrose leads the PCs by 42% to 39%, with the NDP at 10% and the Liberals at 9%.

There is a Gender Gap

There is a substantial gender gap in vote preferences, with men preferring Wildrose and women preferring the PCs.

  • Among men, Wildrose leads the PCs by 44% to 36%, with the NDP at 10% and the Liberals at 8%.
  • Among women, the PCs lead Wildrose by 40% to 28%, with both the NDP and Liberals at 14%.

The PCs have Lost Much of Their 2008 Support

One of the main reasons the race is so competitive is that many 2008 PC voters have moved to Wildrose. Only 54% of decided 2008 PC voters say they are planning to continue to support the party in this election. More than four-in-ten (42%) are planning to vote Wildrose. A small portion are planning to vote NDP (2%) or Liberal (2%).

These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll of 890 adult Albertans conducted online using Ipsos Reid’s national online household panel between March 20 and March 25, 2012. A survey with an unweighted probability sample of this size and a 100% response rate would have an estimated margin of error of ±3.3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The margin of error would be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Alberta population according to 2006 Census data.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Jamie Duncan
Associate Vice President
Ipsos Reid Public Affairs

About Ipsos Reid

Ipsos Reid is Canada's market intelligence leader, the country's leading provider of public opinion research, and research partner for loyalty and forecasting and modelling insights. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos Reid employs more than 600 research professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in the country, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and online panels. Ipsos Reid's marketing research and public affairs practices offer the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada, all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, Ipsos Reid offers syndicated information or custom solutions across key sectors of the Canadian economy, including consumer packaged goods, financial services, automotive, retail, and technology & telecommunications. Ipsos Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.

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About Ipsos

Ipsos is an independent market research company controlled and managed by research professionals. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has grown into a worldwide research group with a strong presence in all key markets. In October 2011 Ipsos completed the acquisition of Synovate. The combination forms the world’s third largest market research company. With offices in 84 countries, Ipsos delivers insightful expertise across six research specializations: advertising, customer loyalty, marketing, media, public affairs research, and survey management.

Ipsos researchers assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media and they measure public opinion around the globe.

Ipsos has been listed on the Paris Stock Exchange since 1999 and generated global revenues of €1,363 billion ($1.897 billion U.S.) in 2011.

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And They’re Off … PCs and Wildrose Tied for Lead Out of the Gate


Jamie Duncan
Vice President, Canada
Ipsos Public Affairs