Calgary, AB – As Albertans prepare to go the polls on April 23rd, a new Ipsos Reid poll shows the race could not be any closer. Alison Redford’s Progressive Conservatives and Danielle Smith’s Wildrose are currently tied, with both having the support of 38% of the province’s decided voters. The other parties are well back of the two main contenders, with the NDP at 12%, the Liberals at 11% and other parties at 2%. These results exclude the 22% of Albertans who are undecided or express no preference.
The Regions are Different
The regional results show the PCs leading in Edmonton, Wildrose leading in Calgary and the two parties in a statistical dead head in the rest of the province.
- In Edmonton, the PCs lead Wildrose by 38% to 24%, with the Liberals at 17% and the New Democrats at 16%.
- In Calgary, Wildrose leads the PCs by 44% to 36%, with the NDP at 10% and the Liberals at 8%.
- In the rest of Alberta, Wildrose leads the PCs by 42% to 39%, with the NDP at 10% and the Liberals at 9%.
There is a Gender Gap
There is a substantial gender gap in vote preferences, with men preferring Wildrose and women preferring the PCs.
- Among men, Wildrose leads the PCs by 44% to 36%, with the NDP at 10% and the Liberals at 8%.
- Among women, the PCs lead Wildrose by 40% to 28%, with both the NDP and Liberals at 14%.
The PCs have Lost Much of Their 2008 Support
One of the main reasons the race is so competitive is that many 2008 PC voters have moved to Wildrose. Only 54% of decided 2008 PC voters say they are planning to continue to support the party in this election. More than four-in-ten (42%) are planning to vote Wildrose. A small portion are planning to vote NDP (2%) or Liberal (2%).
These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll of 890 adult Albertans conducted online using Ipsos Reid’s national online household panel between March 20 and March 25, 2012. A survey with an unweighted probability sample of this size and a 100% response rate would have an estimated margin of error of ±3.3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The margin of error would be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual Alberta population according to 2006 Census data.
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