Vancouver, BC – A new Ipsos Reid poll shows Adrian Dix’s NDP continuing to expand their lead over Christy Clark’s BC Liberals among British Columbia’s decided voters. The poll also shows public approval of Christy Clark has fallen dramatically since February and for the first time more British Columbians think Adrian Dix would make a better premier.
The NDP have opened up a 19 point lead over the BC Liberals among the province’s decided voters. The NDP currently has the support of 48% of decided voters, compared to 29% for the BC Liberals. The BC Conservatives are in third place at 16% support, followed by the Green Party at 6%. These results exclude the 20% of British Columbians who are undecided or express no preference.
The NDP has moved up 4 points since February (from 44% to 48%) with most of these gains coming at the expense of the BC Liberals who are down 3 points (from 32% to 29%). The BC Conservatives are unchanged (16%) from February, while the Greens are down a single point (from 7% to 6%).
- Region: The NDP leads in all regions. They have a 17 point lead in Metro Vancouver (49% NDP vs. 32% BC Lib), a 29 point lead on Vancouver Island (53% NDP vs. 24% BC Lib) and a 17 point lead in the Southern Interior/North (45% NDP vs. 28% BC Lib).
- Gender: The NDP has a 32 point lead among women (56% NDP vs. 24% BC Lib) and a much smaller 6 point lead among men (41% NDP vs. 35% BC Lib).
Leader Approval Ratings
The approval rating of Christy Clark as Premier has dropped substantially since February. Currently 33% (down 14 points) of British Columbians say they approve of her performance (6% ‘strongly’), while 56% (up 9 points) disapprove (32% ‘strongly’). One-in-ten (11%, up 5 points) are undecided about her performance as Premier.
Meanwhile, Adrian Dix’s approval rating as NDP and Opposition leader is moving up. Currently 50% (up 5 points) of British Columbians say they approve of his performance (15% ‘strongly’), while 33% (down 3 points) disapprove (18% ‘strongly’). Nearly two-in-ten (17%, down 2 points) are undecided.
British Columbians are becoming more familiar with John Cummins as BC Conservative, but the increase in familiarity is more negative than positive. His approval rating is up 1 point since February (from 24% to 25%), while his disapproval rating is up 6 points (from 29% to 35%). Four-in-ten (40%, down 7 points) say they are undecided about John Cummins.
Six-in-ten (60%, up 4 points) residents say they have no impression of the job Jane Sterk is doing as Green Party leader. Currently 19% (down 1 point) say they approve of her performance while 21% (down 3 points) disapprove.
For the first time, Adrian Dix leads Christy Clark as the leader who voters think would make the best Premier of British Columbia. Dix is selected by three-in-ten (31%, up 6 points) British Columbians, placing him 6 points ahead of Christy Clark (25%, down 6 points). John Cummins is a distant third choice at 11% (unchanged), followed by Jane Sterk at just 2% (unchanged). One-third (32%) of British Columbians are unsure which of the four party leaders would make the best Premier.
- Dix has a 14 point leadership advantage over Clark among women (34% Dix vs. 20% Clark), but trails by a statistically insignificant 2 points among men (28% Dix vs. 30% Clark).
These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll of 1,026 adult British Columbians conducted online using Ipsos Reid’s national online household panel between June 5 and June 11, 2012. A survey with an unweighted probability sample of this size and a 100% response rate would have an estimated margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The margin of error would be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual BC population according to 2006 Census data.
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Ipsos Reid Public Affairs
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