Ipsos Gets US Elections Right Again!

Wednesday, November 07, 2012

Washington, DC – Together with Thomson Reuters, Ipsos Public Affairs accurately predicted the outcome of the 2012 US elections. This performance reinforces our record for extreme accuracy, demonstrated in our 2008 and 2010 Election polling 1, when we were one of the election’s most accurate pollsters2.

Ipsos has been conducting daily online interviewing for Reuters using a unique blended sampling approach. The accuracy of our final polls shows that online polling – when done well – can be highly accurate at both a national and state level. The Reuters/Ipsos data collected before Election Day and on Election Day itself as part of our Election Day Poll – more than 163,000 interviews in total – can be searched, viewed, and analyzed in detail at http://elections.reuters.com/#poll.

Our final poll published the day before the election showed Obama ahead by two points among likely voters, which exactly mirrors the popular vote results (11am EST 11.07.12).

(Click to enlarge image)

Additional detail is below. Ipsos conducted final eve of election polls in Ohio, Virginia, Florida and Colorado:

  • In Virginia our final poll gave Obama a two-point lead, and with 97% of votes counted, Obama is ahead by three points
  • In Ohio our final poll gave Obama a four-point lead, and with 90% of votes counted, Obama is ahead by two points
  • In Colorado our final poll gave Obama a one-point lead, and with 90% of votes counted, Obama is ahead by four points
  • In Florida our final poll gave Romney a one-point lead, and with 97% of votes counted, Obama leads by one point

Our Senate predictions in all states where we undertook polling were also highly accurate, with correct projections in Virginia, Ohio, and Florida:

  • In Virginia our final poll gave Kaine a three-point lead over Allen, and with 97% of votes counted, Kaine is ahead by four points
  • In Florida our final poll gave Nelson a fifteen-point lead over Mack, and with 97% of votes counted, Nelson leads by thirteen points
  • In Ohio our final poll gave Brown a nine-point lead over Mandel, and with 90% of votes counted, Brown is ahead by five points

Further detail on Ipsos’ methodology is below. We will update and re-circulate this memo once all the races have been counted and finalized; all-in-all, a very good night for Ipsos!

Methodological details:

Ipsos’ final election polls were conducted for Thomson Reuters from Nov. 1-5, 2012. For the survey, a sample of 5,643 American registered voters and 4,725 Likely Voters (all age 18 and over) was interviewed online. The precision of the Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility intervals. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points for Registered Voters and 4.0 for Likely Voters.

The data were weighted to the U.S. current population data by gender, age, education, and ethnicity. Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error.

1 http://www.freedomslighthouse.com/2008/11/rasmussen-ipsos-most-accurate-2008.html, http://www.ipsos.com/public-affairs/Best_in_Class

2 http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/11/03/how-did-the-polls-do_n_778216.html

For more information on this news release please contact:

Julia Clark
Vice President
Ipsos Public Affairs

Clifford Young
Senior Vice President
Ipsos Public Affairs

About Ipsos Public Affairs

Ipsos Public Affairs is a non-partisan, objective, survey-based research practice made up of seasoned professionals. We conduct strategic research initiatives for a diverse number of American and international organizations, based not only on public opinion research, but elite stakeholder, corporate, and media opinion research.

Ipsos has media partnerships with the most prestigious news organizations around the world. In the U.S., UK and internationally, Ipsos Public Affairs is the media polling supplier to Reuters News, the world's leading source of intelligent information for businesses and professionals, and the Hispanic polling partner of Telemundo Communications Group, a division of NBC Universal providing Spanish-language content to U.S. Hispanics and audiences around the world.

Ipsos Public Affairs is a member of the Ipsos Group, a leading global survey-based market research company. We provide boutique-style customer service and work closely with our clients, while also undertaking global research.

To learn more visit: www.ipsos-na.com

About Ipsos

Ipsos is an independent market research company controlled and managed by research professionals. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has grown into a worldwide research group with a strong presence in all key markets. In October 2011 Ipsos completed the acquisition of Synovate. The combination forms the world’s third largest market research company.

With offices in 84 countries, Ipsos delivers insightful expertise across six research specializations: advertising, customer loyalty, marketing, media, public affairs research, and survey management.

Ipsos researchers assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media and they measure public opinion around the globe.

Ipsos has been listed on the Paris Stock Exchange since 1999 and generated global revenues of €1,363 billion (1.897 billion USD) in 2011.

Ipsos Gets US Elections Right Again!

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Clifford Young
President, US
Ipsos Public Affairs
Julia Clark
Senior Vice President, US
Ipsos Public Affairs