Vancouver, BC – As the BC election campaign gets officially underway, a new Ipsos Reid poll shows the NDP maintaining its 19 point lead over the BC Liberals among decided voters. Both of the top two parties have lost some support to the BC Conservatives and Greens in the past month.
The NDP has held its lead in terms of voter support in BC. The NDP, at 48%, continue to hold a 19 point lead over the BC Liberals, at 29%, among the province’s decided voters. The BC Conservatives (11%) and Green Party (9%) both have the support of roughly one-in-ten decided voters. Three percent say they support some other political party or an independent candidate. These results exclude the 19% of British Columbians who are undecided or express no preference.
The movement since our March poll is away from the two frontrunners and toward the BC Conservatives and Greens. Both the NDP and Liberals are down three points from March (they were 51% and 32%, respectively), while the Conservatives and Greens are up two points (they were 9% and 7%, respectively). Support for other parties and independents is also up 2 points (from 1% in March).
- Region: The NDP continues to lead in all regions. They have a 15 point lead in Metro Vancouver (48% NDP vs. 33% BC Lib), a 28 point lead on Vancouver Island (52% NDP vs. 24% BC Lib) and a 21 point lead in the Southern Interior/North (46% NDP vs. 25% BC Lib).
- Gender: The NDP has a 31 point lead among women (54% NDP vs. 23% BC Lib) and a smaller 7 point lead among men (42% NDP vs. 35% BC Lib).
- BC Conservatives: Support for the BC Conservatives is highest in the Interior/North (15%) and among men (14%).
- Green Party: Support for the Green Party is highest among younger voters (14%) and women (12%).
Leader Approval Ratings
Approval ratings for Christy Clark as Premier are basically unchanged from March. Currently three-in-ten (30%, no change) British Columbians say they approve of her performance (6% ‘strongly’), while two-thirds (64%, down 1 point) disapprove of her performance (43% ‘strongly’). Only 6% (up 1 point) are undecided about her performance as Premier.
Approval ratings for Adrian Dix are also basically unchanged from March. Half of British Columbians (51%, no change) say they approve of the job that Adrian Dix is doing as NDP and Opposition leader (18% ‘strongly’), while four-in-ten (39%, down 1 point) disapprove (22% ‘strongly’). Nine percent (down 1 point) of British Columbians are undecided about Dix.
Both approval and disapproval numbers are moving upward for John Cummins as BC Conservative leader. His approval rating of 19% is up 3 points from March, while his disapproval rating of 46% is up 2 points. Slightly more than one-in-three (35%, down 4 points) British Columbians say they are undecided about John Cummins.
Jane Sterk shows the best positive movement over the past month. Currently 28% say they approve of her performance, which is an increase of 5 points from 23% in March. Her disapproval rating of 20% is unchanged from March. Half of residents (51%, down 5 points) say they have no impression of the job Jane Sterk is doing as Green Party leader.
Best Premier numbers are all statistically unchanged from March. Adrian Dix continues to be the leader who voters think would make the best Premier of British Columbia. Dix is selected by 36% (down 1 point) of British Columbians, placing him 13 points ahead of Christy Clark (23%, unchanged). Dix remains the top choice across all regions, both genders and all age groups.
John Cummins is a distant third choice at 10% (up 2 points), followed by Jane Sterk at 4% (no change). Nearly three-in-ten (27%, down 1 point) British Columbians are unsure which of the four party leaders would make the best Premier.
Predicted Election Outcome
British Columbians think an NDP majority is the most likely outcome in the May election. Nearly six-in-ten (58%) predict an NDP majority result, compared to only 8% who predict another BC Liberal majority. Two-in-ten (20%) residents think another outcome is more likely and 13% have no opinion.
- Among NDP supporters, 86% predict an NDP majority (2% Lib majority, 9% other outcome, 3% no opinion).
- Among BC Liberal supporters, just 20% predict a BC Liberal majority. Liberal voters are more likely to predict an NDP majority (37%) or some other outcome (32%). Eleven percent have no opinion.
These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll of 800 adult British Columbians conducted online using Ipsos Reid’s national online household panel between April 11 and 14, 2013. A survey with an unweighted probability sample of this size and a 100% response rate would have an estimated margin of error of ±3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The margin of error would be larger within regions and for other sub-groupings of the survey population. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual BC population according to 2011 Census data.
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Ipsos Reid Public Affairs
About Ipsos Reid
Ipsos Reid is Canada's market intelligence leader, the country's leading provider of public opinion research, and research partner for loyalty and forecasting and modelling insights. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos Reid employs more than 600 research professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in the country, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and online panels. Ipsos Reid's marketing research and public affairs practices offer the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada, all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, Ipsos Reid offers syndicated information or custom solutions across key sectors of the Canadian economy, including consumer packaged goods, financial services, automotive, retail, and technology & telecommunications. Ipsos Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.
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