BC Liberals Cut NDP Lead in Half

BC Liberals (35%, up 6) Trail NDP (45%, down 3) by 10 Points vs. 19 Points at Campaign Start

BC Conservatives (7%, down 4) Down; Greens (10%, up 1) Stable

Christy Clark (31%, up 8) Making Big Gains on Adrian Dix (34%, down 2) as Best Premier

Friday, May 03, 2013

Vancouver, BC - An Ipsos Reid poll taken in the days following the leaders’ debate shows positive movement for both the BC Liberals and leader Christy Clark. The NDP lead among decided voters has fallen from 19 points at the start of the campaign to 10 points today. And Adrian Dix’s lead over Christy Clark as Best Premier has fallen from 13 points to just 3 points today.

Ballot

The NDP continues to have a sizeable lead in terms of voter support in BC, but their lead has declined considerably since the start of the campaign. The NDP currently has the support of 45% of decided voters, down 3 points from the start of the campaign (48%). The BC Liberals are 10 points back at 35% support, but this is an increase of 6 points from the start of the campaign (29%).

Some of the BC Liberal gains have clearly come at the expense of the BC Conservatives, who have seen their support decline by 4 points since the start of the campaign (from 11% to 7% today). Meanwhile, support for the Green Party is stable at 10%, up 1 point from the start of the campaign (9%).

These results exclude the 13% (down 6 points) of British Columbians who are undecided or express no preference.

  • Region:The NDP continues to lead in all regions of the province, but by smaller margins than at the start of the campaign. They have an 8 point lead (down from 15) in Metro Vancouver (47% NDP vs. 39% BC Lib), a 20 point lead (down from 28) on Vancouver Island (48% NDP vs. 28% BC Lib) and a 9 point lead (down from 21) in the Southern Interior/North (41% NDP vs. 32% BC Lib). The Green Party does best on Vancouver Island (18% support) and the BC Conservatives do best in Southern Interior/North (12% support).
  • Gender:The NDP has a 20 point lead (down from 31) among women (50% NDP vs. 30% BC Lib), while the two main parties are tied (NDP led by 7 at start of campaign) among men (40% NDP vs. 40% BC Lib).

Vote Firmness

Only 15% of decided voters say there is a good chance that they will change their mind and vote for some other party’s candidate in this election. Current NDP and BC Liberal voters are the least likely to say there is a good chance they will change their mind (12% each).

This compares to 28% of BC Conservative supporters and 23% of Green Party supporters. However, caution should be taken with the results for these two parties as sample sizes are small.

Best Premier

Christy Clark has made big gains with voters on the question of which leader would make the best premier of British Columbia. Currently, 31% select Christy Clark, which is an increase of 8 points from the start of the campaign. Adrian Dix still has a narrow lead on this question. He sits at 34%, a decline of 2 points from the start of the campaign.

Jane Sterk is up four points from the start of the campaign to 8% (from 4%), while John Cummins is down 3 points to 7% (from 10%).

Some of Clark’s gains have come from converting those who had no opinion at the start of the campaign. Twenty percent are undecided on this question, which is a decline of 7 points (from 27%).

  • Gender:Some of Clark’s gains have come from converting those who had no opinion at the start of the campaign. Twenty percent are undecided on this question, which is a decline of 7 points (from 27%).

Methodology

These are the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll of 1,000 adult British Columbians conducted online using Ipsos Reid’s national online household panel between April 30 and May 2, 2013. These data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample's regional and age/sex composition reflects that of the actual BC population according to 2011 Census data. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within +/- 3.5 percentage points had all British Columbia adults been surveyed. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Kyle Braid
Vice President
Ipsos Reid Public Affairs
778.373.5130
kyle.braid@ipsos.com
@kylebraid

About Ipsos Reid

Ipsos Reid is Canada's market intelligence leader, the country's leading provider of public opinion research, and research partner for loyalty and forecasting and modelling insights. With operations in eight cities, Ipsos Reid employs more than 600 research professionals and support staff in Canada. The company has the biggest network of telephone call centres in the country, as well as the largest pre-recruited household and online panels. Ipsos Reid's marketing research and public affairs practices offer the premier suite of research vehicles in Canada, all of which provide clients with actionable and relevant information. Staffed with seasoned research consultants with extensive industry-specific backgrounds, Ipsos Reid offers syndicated information or custom solutions across key sectors of the Canadian economy, including consumer packaged goods, financial services, automotive, retail, and technology & telecommunications. Ipsos Reid is an Ipsos company, a leading global survey-based market research group.

To learn more, please visit www.ipsos.ca.

About Ipsos

Ipsos is an independent market research company controlled and managed by research professionals. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has grown into a worldwide research group with a strong presence in all key markets. In October 2011 Ipsos completed the acquisition of Synovate. The combination forms the world’s third largest market research company.

With offices in 85 countries, Ipsos delivers insightful expertise across six research specializations: advertising, customer loyalty, marketing, media, public affairs research, and survey management.

Ipsos researchers assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media and they measure public opinion around the globe.

Ipsos has been listed on the Paris Stock Exchange since 1999 and generated global revenues of €1,789 billion (2.300 billion USD) in 2012.


BC Liberals Cut NDP Lead in Half

Contact

Kyle Braid
Senior Vice President / Vice-Président Senior, Canada
Ipsos Public Affairs
+1 778 373 5130
kyle.braid@ipsos.com