Toronto, ON – Doug Ford’s recent entry into the Toronto Mayoral race has certainly moved the decided vote numbers, but it appears decidedly not in his favour. In fact, with pugnacious jabs at front-runner John Tory in his first debate with Tory and Olivia Chow, it appears that the strategy may have backfired pushing Tory up an extra five points among decided voters since the last poll conducted by Ipsos Reid for Global News on September 16, 2014.
This latest poll conducted between September 23rd and 26th, 2014, of 1,252 Torontonians (of which 1,105 are decided voters, with an accuracy of +/- 3.2 percentage points), reveals that if an election were held tomorrow John Tory would receive support from 48% of decided voters, up from 43% previously, compared with Olivia Chow (26%, down 3 points) and Doug Ford (26%, down 2 points) who are now tied for second place and are sputtering. One in ten (12%) voters remains undecided. In fact, Tory’s domination of the voting public is so much that he now leads in the previously held “Ford Nation” bastions of Etobicoke and Scarborough.
What was a 14 and 15 point lead over Chow and Ford, respectively, last week is now a 22 point gulf between them and frontrunner Tory. Even with 4 weeks to go until Election Day – which can seem a lifetime in politics – it will be difficult for Chow or Ford to bridge this gap.
Voter Turnout Unlikely to Change Outcome Significantly…
“Getting out the vote” often makes the difference between winning or losing in close races. In this case, John Tory’s lead is so great at this stage that the outcome is not likely to be significantly impacted by voter turnout (save for a disastrous voter over-confidence complacency or some fatal gaffe.)
To test this, Ipsos Reid employed a second data weighting scheme that more closely reflects the likely turnout demographic profile of the voting population on Election Day and actually found Tory’s support grew to 51%, while Ford (25%) and Chow’s (24%) remained stagnant.
It Would Appear Most Decided Toronto Voters Have Locked in on Tory as the Front-Runner Choice for Mayor, and it’s really His to Lose…
While election campaigns are never really over until they’re over, this latest poll finds that Tory leads in every region of the city, including Etobicoke and Scarborough where ex-Mayor Rob Ford, Doug Ford’s brother, has previously and continuously dominated:
- In the old City of Toronto/downtown, where Olivia Chow formerly served as a City Councillor and as MP for Trinity-Spadina, Tory (53%) leads Chow (35%) and especially Ford (12%) by a wide margin.
- In Etobicoke, where Doug Ford is presently a City Councillor, Tory (51%) leads second-place Ford (31%), while Chow (18%) trails.
- In North York, Tory (54%) has a commanding lead over Ford (26%) and Chow (20%).
- In York/East York, Tory’s (41%) lead over Chow (30%) and Ford (29%) is more modest, but still strong.
- In Scarborough, Tory (40%) is slightly ahead of Ford (35%) while Chow (25%) trails.
John Tory’s lead is strong among both men and women:
- Among men, Tory (50%) is well in the lead, with Ford (29%) besting Chow (21%) for second place.
- Among women, Tory (46%) remains in the lead, but Chow (31%) bests Ford (23%) for second place.
John Tory also has a significant lead among those aged 35+ -- who are also more likely than their younger counterparts to show up and vote:
- Among those aged 55+, Tory’s (58%) lead over Ford (23%) and Chow (18%) is massive.
- Among those aged 35 to 54, Tory (48%) still has a strong lead over Ford (28%) and Chow (24%).
- Among those aged 18 to 34, Chow (37%) narrowly edges Tory (36%), with Ford (28%) behind.
John Tory also leads among every income group:
- Among those with household income of at least $100,000 a year, Tory (56%) has a huge lead over Chow (23%) and Ford (21%).
- Among those who earn $60K to $100K a year, Tory’s (48%) strength over Ford (26%) and Chow (25%) remains.
- Among those who earn between $40K and $60K a year, Tory (45%) continues to lead Ford (31%) and Chow (25%) but by a narrower margin.
- Among those who earn less than $40K a year, Tory (38%) and Chow (37%) are essentially tied, with Ford (26%) bringing up the rear.
These are some of the findings of an Ipsos Reid poll conducted between September 23rd and 26th, 2014 on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 1,252 Torontonians (of which 1,105 are decided voters) from Ipsos' Canadian online panel was interviewed online. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within +/ 3.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Torontonian adults been polled. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.
For more information on this news release, please contact:
Darrell Bricker, PhD
About Ipsos Reid
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