Global Citizens Feel More Vulnerable Than They Did One Year Ago

Sense of Vulnerability Fueled by Two of Eight Threats in 2014: Armed Conflict and Major Health Epidemic

Saturday, November 22, 2014

Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada – A survey of citizens in 23 countries reveals that they feel more vulnerable today than they did a year ago – not much more, but differently.

And not surprisingly perhaps, given global concerns about Ebola and the global engagement of many countries in the Middle East with the Islamic State in Syria and Levant (“ISIL”), that vulnerability is being fueled by two out of eight threats that have been measured since 2010—a potential armed conflict and a major health epidemic.

The poll, conducted by global market and opinion research firm Ipsos for the Halifax International Security Forum taking place in Halifax, Canada from November 21 to 23, 2014.

Since 2010, Ipsos has been tracking eight types of threats and asking citizens around the world how likely they think those threats could take place in the next 12 months followed by almost identical questions but asking respondents versus how confident they are that the appropriate levels of security and protection could be provided by the government or its agencies that could respond effectively to those threats. This has produced an annual Global Vulnerability Index – basically the difference between how citizens feel likely to be visited upon by certain threats and whether or not there governments or its agencies can deal with them when they happen.

The top threats in the world, by the descending ranked order, are:

1. Some person, organization or country hacking into either your public, private or personal information system for fraudulent or espionage purposes: 64% (down six points from 2013);

2. A major health epidemic breaking out in your country: 59% (up 13 points from 2013);

3. A nuclear, biological or chemical attack taking place somewhere in the world: 57% (down 10 points from 2013);

4. A terrorist attack taking place in your country: 55% (down one point from 2013);

5. A major natural disaster occurring in your country: 54% (down two points from 2013);

6. Your country being involved in an armed conflict with another nation: 51% (up seven points from 2013);

7. A violent conflict breaking out between ethnic or minority groups in your country: 51% (down three points from 2013); and,

8. The personal safety and security for you or your family members being violated: 50% (down six points from 2013).

But that’s Only Half the Story – And Perhaps not the Most Important…

When those eight categorical threats are traded off against how citizens feel should any of those things happen in the next 12 months versus how confident they are that the appropriate levels of security and protection could be provided by the government or its agencies that could respond effectively to those threats, it tells the story of perceived vulnerability.

In short, for 2014, the total Global Vulnerability Index ranking (total threat minus total confident divided by eight categories= +/- “secure/vulnerable” average) is more vulnerable overall at -9.875 (versus -9.250 in 2013 = -.625).

By category, this is how the world feels right now compared to a year ago:

1. More secure on Computer Hacking: Some person, organization or country hacking into either your public, private or personal information system for fraudulent or espionage purposes: -23.0 (versus -27.0 in 2013 = + 4.0);

2. More secure on a Major Attack: A nuclear, biological or chemical attack taking place somewhere in the world: -16.0 (versus -24.0 in 2013 = + 8.0);

3. More vulnerable on a major health epidemic breaking out in your country: -11.0 (versus -3.0 in 2013 = - 8.0);

4. More vulnerable on a terrorist attack taking place in your country: -9.0 (versus -7.0 in 2013 = - 2.0);

5. More secure on the personal safety and security for you or your family members being violated: -7.0 (versus -12.0 in 2013 = + 5.0);

6. More secure on a violent conflict breaking out between ethnic or minority groups in your country: -5.0 (versus -7.0 in 2013 = + 2.0);

7. More vulnerable on your country being involved in an armed conflict with another nation: -5.0 (versus + 4.0 in 2013 = - 9.0); and,

8. More vulnerable on a major natural disaster occurring in your country: -3.0 (versus +2.0 in 2013 = - 5.0).

The field dates for the global survey of 17,581 respondents in 24 countries straddled this announcement, beginning on October 5, 2014 and concluding on October 19, 2014. The 24 countries where respondents were surveyed were Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, India, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Poland, Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Turkey and the United States. Not all questions were put to respondents in China so the country was not included in the Global Vulnerability index.

The Halifax International Security Forum is a forum and a network for thoughtful and engaged decision-makers from governments, militaries, business, academia, and the media to work together to meet emerging threats in a changing world. The annual Halifax International Security Forum brings people together in an informal setting that only a place like Halifax, Nova Scotia can provide. As one of the secrets to its success, Halifax creates an informal, unscripted, discussion-based atmosphere that encourages interactive and free-flowing exchanges. The Forum gives participants two days without distraction to focus on pressing security issues, conduct bilateral meetings, and network. The Forum is a non-profit, non-partisan organization based in Washington, D.C., and plays the role of host so government officials are free from their own hosting responsibilities and have the opportunity to focus solely on engaging with participants.

Key findings Ranked by Country…

Vulnerability Gap Analysis for Threats and Confidence 2014…

Respondents were provided with a list of 16 questions which have been tracked since 2010. The questions included the following preambles to which the topics where then inserted:

1. How real do you feel the threat is of any of the following happening in the next twelve months-a very real threat, a somewhat real threat, not much of a real threat or not a real threat at all?

2. And, if any of the following were to happen in the next twelve months, how confident are you that the appropriate levels of security and protection could be provided by your government or its agencies could respond effectively to?

Total Global Vulnerability Index Ranking (total threat minus total confident divided by eight categories = +/- secure/vulnerable): -9.875 (versus -9.250 in 2013 = - .625)…

Green = Secure Red = Vulnerable

Global Total Index -9.875 (versus -9.250 in 2013 = - .625) – Sweden +15.875, Canada +9.25, Russia +6.75, Saudi Arabia +3.125, Australia +1.625, India -0.75, Great Britain -3.75, Germany -5.375, Hungary -6.75, Poland -7, Belgium -9.5, Brazil -11.75, Romania -11.875, South Korea -13.25, United States -13.5, Argentina -15, Japan -17.5, France -18.25, Mexico -21.5, South Africa -21.625, Italy -22.5, Spain -27.5 and Turkey -32.375.

Sub-Total Indices:

1. Some person, organization or country hacking into either your public, private or personal information system for fraudulent or espionage purposes: -23.0 (versus -27.0 in 2013 = + 4.0)…

Global total -23.0 – Saudi Arabia -4, Australia -6, Canada -6, Sweden -10, Russia -11, Poland -13, Hungary -14, Great Britain -17, Italy -20, Romania -23, Japan -25, United States -25, Brazil -27, South Korea -28, Argentina -30, Belgium -30, Mexico -36, France -36, South Africa -36, Turkey -37, Germany -45 and Spain -48.

2. A nuclear, biological or chemical attack taking place somewhere in the world: -16.0 (versus -24.0 in 2013 = + 8.0)…

Global total -16.0 – Russia +11, Saudi Arabia +1, France 0, India 0, Canada -4, Sweden -5, Australia -5, Great Britain -7, United States -10, Germany -13, Brazil -14, Romania -18, Italy -18, South Korea -18, Belgium -20, Poland -21, Japan -23, Hungary -27, Mexico -29, South Africa -29, Argentina -32, Turkey -36 and Spain -44,.

3. A major health epidemic breaking out in your country: -11.0 (versus -3.0 in 2013 = - 8.0)…

Global total -11.0 – Sweden +26, Russia +14, Australia +10, Germany +9, India 0, Saudi Arabia -2, Hungary -4, Belgium -4, Canada -5, Argentina -5, Great Britain -9, South Korea -11, Poland -15, Mexico -19, Romania -20, France -20, Turkey -20, Japan -21, United States -22, Brazil -22, Italy -28, South Africa -34 and Spain -41.

4. A terrorist attack taking place in your country: -9.0 (versus -7.0 in 2013 = - 2.0)…

Global total -9.0 – Sweden +20, Brazil +8, Canada +7, Hungary +7, Saudi Arabia +3, South Africa +2, Poland -1, Mexico -3, South Korea -3, Argentina -4, Romania -6, Australia -7, Russia -8, India -8, Japan -13, Germany -14, Great Britain -18, United States -19, Italy -26, Belgium -27, France -33, Spain -38 and Turkey -41.

5. The personal safety and security for you or your family members being violated: -7.0 (versus -12.0 in 2013 = + 5.0)…

Global total -7.0 – Canada +30, Australia +20, Great Britain +18, Sweden +14, India +7, Russia +7, United States +5, Saudi Arabia +5, Germany +3, Hungary -6, Romania -9, France -9, Poland -11, Belgium -11, Japan -12, South Korea -14, Spain -17, Italy -21, Turkey -25, Brazil -29, Mexico -37, Argentina -38 and South Africa -46,

6. A violent conflict breaking out between ethnic or minority groups in your country: -5.0 (versus -7.0 in 2013 = + 2.0)…

Global total -5.0 – Canada +31, Russia +12, Sweden +11, Poland +9, Saudi Arabia +9, Belgium +1, Romania 0, Great Britain -1, Australia -2, United States -2, India -4, Japan -4, Argentina -6, Brazil -6, Germany -6, South Korea -6, Spain -8, Italy -8, France -16, Hungary -18, South Africa -28, Mexico -31 and Turkey -43.

7. Your country being involved in an armed conflict with another nation: -5.0 (versus + 4.0 in 2013 = - 9.0)…

Global total -5.0– Sweden +34, Russia +12, Brazil +10, Mexico +9, Hungary +7, India +6, Argentina +6, Saudi Arabia +4, South Africa +1 Romania 0, Canada -2, Spain -4, Germany -7, Australia -8, Belgium -8, Poland -9, South Korea -10, Italy -12, Japan -14, United States -20, Great Britain -24, France -34 and Turkey -36.

8. A major natural disaster occurring in your country: -3.0 (versus +2.0 in 2013 = - 5.0)…

Global total -3.0 – Sweden +37, Germany +30, Great Britain +28, Canada +23, Belgium +23, Russia +17, Australia +11, Saudi Arabia +9, Poland +5, France +2, Hungary +1, South Africa -3, India -4, Argentina -11, Brazil -14, United States -15, South Korea -16, Romania -19, Spain -20, Turkey -24, Mexico -26, Japan -28 and Italy -47.

These are findings of the research conducted by global research company Ipsos for the Halifax International Security Forum. The research was conducted on the “G@61”wave between October 7th to 21st, 2014. The Global @dvisor data output is derived from a balanced online sample in 24 countries around the world via the Ipsos Online Panel system. For the results of the survey presented herein, an international sample of 17,581 respondents in 24 countries were interviewed: Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, India, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Poland, Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Turkey and the United States. Not all questions were answered by Chinese respondents due to State rejected questions prior to administering the survey. Interviews were conducted among adults aged 18-64 in the US and Canada and aged 16-64 in all other countries. Approximately 1000+ individuals participated on a country by country basis via the Ipsos Online Panel with the exception of Argentina, Belgium, Hungary, India, Mexico, Poland, Romania, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Sweden and Turkey where each have a sample approximately 500+. The precision of Ipsos online polls are calculated using a credibility interval. In this case, a poll of 1,000 is accurate to +/- 3.5 percentage points and one of 500 is accurate to +/- 5.0 percentage points in their respective general populations. There are 15 countries that have been weighted to represent their actual adult population: Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Japan, Poland, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom and the United States. The remaining nine country results are representative of adult Primary Consumers who are internet enabled and have a higher income and education than the average country norm.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker, PhD
CEO
Ipsos Public Affairs
(416) 324-2001
darrell.bricker@Ipsos.com

About Ipsos

Ipsos is an independent market research company controlled and managed by research professionals. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has grown into a worldwide research group with a strong presence in all key markets. Ipsos ranks third in the global research industry.

With offices in 86 countries, Ipsos delivers insightful expertise across six research specializations: advertising, customer loyalty, marketing, media, public affairs research, and survey management.

Ipsos researchers assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media and they measure public opinion around the globe.

Ipsos has been listed on the Paris Stock Exchange since 1999 and generated global revenues of €1,712,4 million (2 274 M$) in 2013.

Visit www.ipsos.com to learn more about Ipsos’ offerings and capabilities.


Global Citizens Feel More Vulnerable Than They Did One Year Ago

Contact

Darrell Bricker
CEO, Global
Ipsos Public Affairs
+1.416.324.2001
darrell.bricker@ipsos.com