Heading into Greece Referendum Vote Too close to Call: ‘Yes’ 44% versus ‘No’ 43%

Friday, July 03, 2015

Paris, July 3, 2015 – As Greek citizens head to the polls on Sunday July 5, 2015 to vote in a referendum triggered by the government of Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and asks whether the country should accept demands made by its international creditors, a new poll by Ipsos indicates that the vote intentions at this point are very close: the ‘Yes’ vote has 44% and the ‘No’ vote has ‘43%’ with 12% undecided and 1% with no decision.

Regardless of their own personal opinion, it would appear that most (45%) Greeks believe that the ‘Yes’ side will win compared with just one third (33%) who believe that the ‘No’ side will be victorious.

The findings also show a significant potential for volatility—not just because 12% remain undecided and only 72% have definitely made up their mind, but also because the framing of what constitutes a ‘No’ vote is ambiguous and may play into the Prime Ministers plan to tap into the majority sentiment that Greece should definitely stay in the Eurozone (71%) and the EU (68%) and that the vote not be for an exit but rather a strengthened political hand in dealing with foreign creditors.

In that regard, uncertainty of the consequences of the outcome appears to be a consistent tension adding to the potential volatility: a majority (80%) indicate that they worry about the implementation of the policies requested by the partner creditors in the event of a ‘Yes’ vote while two thirds (65%) indicate they worry about the uncertainty of Greece remaining in the Eurozone in the event of a ‘No’ vote.

This drama is also being played out against a majority (67%) who are dissatisfied with their household economic situation and high unemployment rates are fueling those under age of 55 to lean toward the ‘No’ vote with those 55+ who have been hampered by limitations on their pension payments and bank withdrawals nervously tilting toward a ‘Yes’ vote. And while the Prime Minister has a plurality (45%) of support for the work he has done in the last five months, there is even a wildcard here: the poll finds that approximately 20% of SYRIZA’s voters will vote ‘Yes’ and there is a good sized percentage of them who have not yet decided.

Civic engagement is high with a majority indicating they are ‘interested’ (83%) and ‘well informed’ (67%) with a large majority (86%) indicating they will ‘certainly vote’ in the referendum.

Whatever Their Own Views, Greeks Currently Expect ‘Yes’ To Win…

Regardless of their own personal opinion, it would appear that most (45%) Greeks believe that the ‘Yes’ side will win compared with just one third (33%) who believe that the ‘No’ side will be victorious.

Greek PM Has Personal Support of 45%…

The next 48 hours will be crucial for those yet to be persuaded with Prime Minister Tsipras having a key speech planned for Saturday, July 4th, 2015. As of July 2nd, the Prime Minister has been advocating for a ‘NO’ vote on the grounds that the offer is not good enough and that a ‘NO’ will give him more negotiating power with the EU. Alternatively, the ‘YES’ campaign believes that failing to accept the offer will mean that Greece will exit the Eurozone (‘Grexit’).

When asked to pass judgment on the work of the Greek Prime Minister during the last five months, a plurality (45%) of citizens give him their support (21% totally support/24% rather support) compared with 36% to do not support him (27% totally not/9% rather not) with 18% expressing a “not sure/neutral” position.

But while the Prime Minister carries some needed to wait into the voters booth, it’s the framing of what constitutes a ‘No’ vote that may well be causing the greatest cause for uncertainty of the outcome as some advocates, like the Prime Minister, see it as a bargaining chip to get a better deal with creditors whereas others view it as a clear decision for Grexit.

Nevertheless, majority (71%) Agree that Greece Should Definitely Stay in the Eurozone…

Seven in 10 (71%) agree (58% totally/13% rather) that Greece should definitely stay in the Eurozone. This compares with just 18% who disagree (11% totally/7% rather) and 10% to neither agree nor disagree.

Majority (68%) Agree that Greece Should Definitely Stay in the EU…

Seven in 10 (68%) agree that “Greece should definitely stay in the EU” (55% total agree/13% rather). This compares with 20% who disagree (13% totally/7% rather) and one in 10 (11%) who neither agree nor disagree.

These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted from June 30th (evening) – July 3rd (noon), 2015. For the survey, a sample of 1,001 Greek adults aged 18+ was interviewed by landline and mobile telephone. The margin of error on the poll is +/- 3.1% at 95% level of confidence. The sample is representative of the Greek population in terms of age, gender and region. Figures marked by an asterisk (*) indicate a percentage value of greater than zero but less than one half of one per cent. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Bruno Negro
Group Marketing and Communications Director
Ipsos
bruno.negro@ipsos.com

About Ipsos

Ipsos is an independent market research company controlled and managed by research professionals. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has grown into a worldwide research group with a strong presence in all key markets. Ipsos ranks third in the global research industry.

With offices in 86 countries, Ipsos delivers insightful expertise across six research specializations: advertising, customer loyalty, marketing, media, public affairs research, and survey management.

Ipsos researchers assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media and they measure public opinion around the globe.

Ipsos has been listed on the Paris Stock Exchange since 1999 and generated global revenues of €1,669.5 ($2,218.4 million) in 2014.

Visit www.ipsos.com to learn more about Ipsos’ offerings and capabilities.


Heading into Greece Referendum Vote Too close to Call: ‘Yes’ 44% versus ‘No’ 43%

Contact

Bruno Negro
Group Marketing and Communications Director
Ipsos

bruno.negro@ipsos.com