Ipsos/Reuters Poll: Post-Republican Debate

Tuesday, November 03, 2015

Washington, D.C. - In our first poll data since the CNBC Republican Debate on October 28, Donald Trump has reclaimed sole leadership of the Republican contest among Republicans with 31% of the vote. Ben Carson, who had pulled into a tie with Trump pre-debate, has fallen back to 18% of Republicans. Marco Rubio has pulled into a tie for 3rd at 10% (with Jeb Bush). Among Republicans, Trump (22%), Rubio (15%), Carson (13%) and Ted Cruz (12%) are seen as having done the best job in the debate.

Topline results are available for download on the right side of the page.

These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted October 28 – November 2, 2015 on behalf Thomson Reuters. For the survey, a sample of 1,848 adults age 18+ from the continental U.S., Alaska and Hawaii was interviewed online in English. The sample included 1,551 Americans that watched the Republican debate, 764 Democrats, 666 Democrats that watched the debate, 635 Republicans, 592 Republicans that watched the debate, 258 Independents, and 210 Independents that watched the debate.

The sample for this study was randomly drawn from Ipsos’s online panel (see link below for more info on “Access Panels and Recruitment”), partner online panel sources, and “river” sampling (see link below for more info on the Ipsos “Ampario Overview” sample method) and does not rely on a population frame in the traditional sense. Ipsos uses fixed sample targets, unique to each study, in drawing sample. After a sample has been obtained from the Ipsos panel, Ipsos calibrates respondent characteristics to be representative of the U.S. Population using standard procedures such as raking-ratio adjustments. The source of these population targets is U.S. Census 2015 American Community Survey data. The sample drawn for this study reflects fixed sample targets on demographics. Post-hoc weights were made to the population characteristics on gender, age, region, race/ethnicity and income.

Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points for all respondents (see link below for more info on Ipsos online polling “Credibility Intervals”). Ipsos calculates a design effect (DEFF) for each study based on the variation of the weights, following the formula of Kish (1965). This study had a credibility interval adjusted for design effect of the following (n=1,848, DEFF=1.5, adjusted Confidence Interval=4.1).

The poll also has a credibility interval of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points for all respondents that watched the debate, plus or minus 4.0 percentage points for all Democrats, plus or minus 4.3 percentage points for Democrats that watched the debate, plus or minus 4.4 percentage points for Republicans, plus or minus 4.6 percentage points for Republicans that watched the debate, plus or minus 7.0 percentage points for Independents, and plus or minus 7.7 percentage points for Independents that watched the debate (see link below for more info on Ipsos online polling “Credibility Intervals”).

For more information about Ipsos online polling methodology, please go here http://goo.gl/yJBkuf

For more information on this news release please contact:

Clifford Young
President, US Public Affairs
Ipsos Public Affairs
202.420.2016
clifford.young@ipsos.com

Julia Clark
Senior Vice President
Ipsos Public Affairs
312.526.4919
julia.clark@ipsos.com

Chris Jackson
Vice President
Ipsos Public Affairs
202.420.2011
chris.jackson@ipsos.com

About Ipsos Public Affairs

Ipsos Public Affairs is a non-partisan, objective, survey-based research practice made up of seasoned professionals. We conduct strategic research initiatives for a diverse number of American and international organizations, based not only on public opinion research, but elite stakeholder, corporate, and media opinion research.

Ipsos has media partnerships with the most prestigious news organizations around the world. In Canada, the U.S., UK, and internationally, Ipsos Public Affairs is the media polling supplier to Reuters News, the world's leading source of intelligent information for businesses and professionals. Ipsos Public Affairs is a member of the Ipsos Group, a leading global survey-based market research company. We provide boutique-style customer service and work closely with our clients, while also undertaking global research.

To learn more visit: www.ipsos-na.com

About Ipsos

Ipsos is an independent market research company controlled and managed by research professionals. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has grown into a worldwide research group with a strong presence in all key markets. Ipsos ranks third in the global research industry.

With offices in 87 countries, Ipsos delivers insightful expertise across five research specializations: brand, advertising and media, customer loyalty, marketing, public affairs research, and survey management.

Ipsos researchers assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media and they measure public opinion around the globe.

Ipsos has been listed on the Paris Stock Exchange since 1999 and generated global revenues of €1,669.5 ($2,218.4 million) in 2014.

Visit www.ipsos.com to learn more about Ipsos’ offerings and capabilities.


Ipsos/Reuters Poll: Post-Republican Debate

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Topline Results

Contact

Chris Jackson
Vice President, US
Ipsos Public Affairs
+1.202.420.2025
chris.jackson@ipsos.com
Clifford Young
President, US
Ipsos Public Affairs
+1.202.420.2016
clifford.young@ipsos.com
Julia Clark
Senior Vice President, US
Ipsos Public Affairs
+1.312.526.4919
julia.clark@ipsos.com