Washington, DC- The findings for the Ipsos poll on Millennial Voting with Diane
Rehm Show were released today.
- Younger voters, or Millennials (ages 18-34), are distinct from their older counterparts on a
number of dimensions, but strikingly similar on others.
- In particular, when it comes to differences, younger voters are:
- More progressive in their orientation
- More likely to understand the American Dream in pluralistic terms versus rugged
- Less white / more non-white
- More likely to support an activist state
- Less likely to identify with an existing party
- More optimistic about the future
- Historically less likely to vote and less enthusiastic this year
- Much more likely to vote for Hillary Clinton than Donald Trump
- And, more likely to use technology – especially social media
- The key questions about these differences are:
- Are these differences permanent – something ingrained in the DNA of this new generation
of voters? Social scientists call these “permanent” types of differences Generational or Cohort
effects. These differences tend to be more long-lasting and “sticky”.
- Or, are these differences part of the life-cycle or a function of aging? Do voters without a
job, or kids, or a mortgage – or who are simply younger – think and act differently than those
that have these things? Social scientists call such differences age or life-cycle effects.
- The answer is a mixed bag. Some of the differences, we see, are a result of the life-cycle,
but others are real generational differences.
- Generational Change
- Younger generations entering the population are more progressive, more nonwhite, and
less aligned politically than older generations.
- The empirical data is clear here. These differences portend longer-term social change.
- Life Cycle Differences
- In contrast, greater optimism, lower voter turnout, lower voter enthusiasm, and stronger
belief in an activist government all appear to be a function of the life-cycle.
- Put differently, as voters age, they become more pessimistic, more likely to vote, and more
likely to believe in a smaller government. But such differences are not necessarily the
harbingers of longer-term societal change.
- Finally, on several key issues of this election, younger voters are similar to their older
- Specifically, on the question of the main problems facing the nation, young and old alike
believe that “economy & jobs” and “terrorism” are the most important priorities.
- There is also little difference by age on two of the most important themes of this election
year, with a strong majority of younger and older voters believing that “the system is broken”
and that “there should be restrictions on immigration”.
- Could these drivers be leading indicators of politics to come?
The topline results, data report and presentation are available for download on the right
side of this page.
These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted August 19-23, 2016 on behalf of
NPR. For the survey, a sample of 1,251 adults age 18-34 from the continental U.S., Alaska
and Hawaii was interviewed online in English. This sample included 658 adults age 18-26
and 539 adults age 27-34. The poll has a credibility interval of ± 3.5
percentage points for all respondents and a credibility interval adjusted for design effect of the
following (n=1,251, DEFF=1.5, adjusted Confidence Interval=5). Post-hoc weights were
made to the population characteristics on gender, age, region, race/ethnicity and income.For
more information about Ipsos online polling methodology, please go here: http://goo.gl/yJBkuf
For more information on this news release please contact:
President, US Public Affairs
Ipsos Public Affairs
About Ipsos Public Affairs
Ipsos Public Affairs is a non-partisan, objective, survey-based research practice made up
of seasoned professionals. We conduct strategic research initiatives for a diverse number of
American and international organizations, based not only on public opinion research, but elite
stakeholder, corporate, and media opinion research.
Ipsos has media partnerships with the most prestigious news organizations around the
world. In Canada, the U.S., UK, and internationally, Ipsos Public Affairs is the media polling
supplier to Reuters News, the world's leading source of intelligent information for businesses
and professionals. Ipsos Public Affairs is a member of the Ipsos Group, a leading global
survey-based market research company. We provide boutique-style customer service and
work closely with our clients, while also undertaking global research.
To learn more visit: ipsos-na.com
Ipsos is an independent market research company controlled and managed by research
professionals. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has grown into a worldwide research group
with a strong presence in all key markets. Ipsos ranks third in the global research industry.
With offices in 87 countries, Ipsos delivers insightful expertise across five research
specializations: brand, advertising and media, customer loyalty, marketing, public affairs
research, and survey management.
Ipsos researchers assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and
build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test
advertising and study audience responses to various media and they measure public opinion
around the globe.
Ipsos has been listed on the Paris Stock Exchange since 1999 and generated global
revenues of €1,669.5 ($2,218.4 million) in 2014.
Visit ipsos.com to learn more about Ipsos’ offerings