Reuters/Ipsos Poll (November 3): Core Political

Thursday, November 03, 2016

Washington, DC- With less than a week to go, the general election matchup has remained stable – despite last Friday’s final October surprise. Clinton and Trump have both seen their favorability ratings improve as partisans are coming home for the big day while undecided voters continue to decline as a share of the electorate.

General Election Trends

  • Hillary Clinton continues to lead Donald Trump among likely voters with a current lead of 6 percentage points. Clinton rose to 45% and Trump’s numbers have ticked up slightly to 39% as undecided or third party voters drift towards the major candidates.
    • Fewer than one-in-six likely voters continue to support alternatives to the major two candidates with many saying they will vote third party (7%), would not vote (3%) or don’t know (5%).
    • Clinton’s lead increases amongst likely voters on the 4-way ballot to a larger 8 percentage point margin, which includes Gary Johnson and Jill Stein (Clinton 45%; Trump 37%; Johnson 5%; and Stein 2%).
  • Clinton’s favorability went up slightly to 51% amongst registered voters.
  • Trump’s favorability scores saw an uptick over the past week with his score now at 45%.

Other Trends

  • The general economy moves back into the top slot as the most serious problem facing the United States, with about one-fifth of Americans citing each as a top threat. Terrorism is only cited by 15% as the most serious problem.
  • President Barack Obama’s approval rating among all Americans went up over the last week to 51%.
  • In our generic congressional ballot question, Democrats still lead with 42% of likely voters saying that they’ll vote for a Democratic candidate vs 41% saying that they’ll vote for a Republican candidate.

Topline results are available for download on the right side of the page.

These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted for Thomson Reuters October 29- November 2, 2016. For the survey, a sample of 2,708 Americans, including 1,228 Democrats, 934 Republicans, 329 Independents, 2,375 registered voters and 1,858 likely voters ages 18+ were interviewed online. The precision of the Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 2.1 percentage points for all adults, 3.2 percentage points for Democrats, 3.7 percentage points for Republicans, 6.2 percentage points for Independents, 2.3 percentage points for registered voters and 2.6 percentage points for likely voters. For more information about credibility intervals, please see the appendix.

The data were weighted to the U.S. current population data by gender, age, education, and ethnicity. Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Figures marked by an asterisk (*) indicate a percentage value of greater than zero but less than one half of one per cent. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding. To see more information on this and other Reuters/Ipsos polls, please visit http://polling.reuters.com/.

For more information on this news release please contact:

Clifford Young
President, US Public Affairs
Ipsos Public Affairs
202.420.2016
clifford.young@ipsos.com

Julia Clark
Senior Vice President
Ipsos Public Affairs
312.526.4919
julia.clark@ipsos.com

Chris Jackson
Vice President
Ipsos Public Affairs
202.420.2011
chris.jackson@ipsos.com

About Ipsos Public Affairs

Ipsos Public Affairs is a non-partisan, objective, survey-based research practice made up of seasoned professionals. We conduct strategic research initiatives for a diverse number of American and international organizations, based not only on public opinion research, but elite stakeholder, corporate, and media opinion research.

Ipsos has media partnerships with the most prestigious news organizations around the world. In Canada, the U.S., UK, and internationally, Ipsos Public Affairs is the media polling supplier to Reuters News, the world's leading source of intelligent information for businesses and professionals. Ipsos Public Affairs is a member of the Ipsos Group, a leading global survey-based market research company. We provide boutique-style customer service and work closely with our clients, while also undertaking global research.

To learn more visit: www.ipsos- na.com

About Ipsos

Ipsos is an independent market research company controlled and managed by research professionals. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has grown into a worldwide research group with a strong presence in all key markets. Ipsos ranks third in the global research industry.

With offices in 87 countries, Ipsos delivers insightful expertise across five research specializations: brand, advertising and media, customer loyalty, marketing, public affairs research, and survey management.

Ipsos researchers assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media and they measure public opinion around the globe.

Ipsos has been listed on the Paris Stock Exchange since 1999 and generated global revenues of €1,785.3 million ($1,981 million) in 2015.

Visit www.ipsos.com to learn more about Ipsos’ offerings and capabilities.


Reuters/Ipsos Poll (November 3): Core Political

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Topline

Contact

Chris Jackson
Vice President, US
Ipsos Public Affairs
+1.202.420.2025
chris.jackson@ipsos.com
Clifford Young
President, US
Ipsos Public Affairs
+1.202.420.2016
clifford.young@ipsos.com
Julia Clark
Senior Vice President, US
Ipsos Public Affairs
+1.312.526.4919
julia.clark@ipsos.com