Reuters/Ipsos Poll (November 4): Core Political

Friday, November 04, 2016

Washington, DC- Counting down the days, the national picture remains pretty stable despite a bit of noise. Hillary Clinton is going into this final weekend with much the same lead our poll has observed all year long, and while we’ve seen slight tightening in the last few days, she remains on the inside track.

General Election Trends

  • Hillary Clinton continues to lead Donald Trump among likely voters with a current lead of 5 percentage points, down from 7 at the beginning of the week. Clinton holds 44% of likely voters while Trump is unchanged with 39%.
    • Fewer than one-in-six likely voters continue to support alternatives to the major two candidates with few saying they will vote third party (7%), would not vote (3%) or don’t know (7%).
    • Clinton’s lead increases amongst likely voters on the 4-way ballot to a larger 7 percentage point margin, which includes Gary Johnson and Jill Stein (Clinton 44%; Trump 37%; Johnson 6%; and Stein 2%).
  • Clinton’s favorability among registered voters is holding steady at 51%.
  • Trump’s favorability scores are also essentially steady at 44%.

Topline results are available for download on the right side of the page.

These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted for Thomson Reuters October 30- November 3, 2016. For the survey, a sample of 2,977 Americans, including 1,350 Democrats, 1036 Republicans, 348 Independents, 2,593 registered voters and 2,021 likely voters ages 18+ were interviewed online. The precision of the Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 2.1 percentage points for all adults, 3.2 percentage points for Democrats, 3.7 percentage points for Republicans, 6.2 percentage points for Independents, 2.3 percentage points for registered voters and 2.6 percentage points for likely voters. For more information about credibility intervals, please see the appendix.

The data were weighted to the U.S. current population data by gender, age, education, and ethnicity. Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Figures marked by an asterisk (*) indicate a percentage value of greater than zero but less than one half of one per cent. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding. To see more information on this and other Reuters/Ipsos polls, please visit

For more information on this news release please contact:

Clifford Young
President, US Public Affairs
Ipsos Public Affairs

Julia Clark
Senior Vice President
Ipsos Public Affairs

Chris Jackson
Vice President
Ipsos Public Affairs

About Ipsos Public Affairs

Ipsos Public Affairs is a non-partisan, objective, survey-based research practice made up of seasoned professionals. We conduct strategic research initiatives for a diverse number of American and international organizations, based not only on public opinion research, but elite stakeholder, corporate, and media opinion research.

Ipsos has media partnerships with the most prestigious news organizations around the world. In Canada, the U.S., UK, and internationally, Ipsos Public Affairs is the media polling supplier to Reuters News, the world's leading source of intelligent information for businesses and professionals. Ipsos Public Affairs is a member of the Ipsos Group, a leading global survey-based market research company. We provide boutique-style customer service and work closely with our clients, while also undertaking global research.

To learn more visit: www.ipsos-

About Ipsos

Ipsos is an independent market research company controlled and managed by research professionals. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has grown into a worldwide research group with a strong presence in all key markets. Ipsos ranks third in the global research industry.

With offices in 87 countries, Ipsos delivers insightful expertise across five research specializations: brand, advertising and media, customer loyalty, marketing, public affairs research, and survey management.

Ipsos researchers assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media and they measure public opinion around the globe.

Ipsos has been listed on the Paris Stock Exchange since 1999 and generated global revenues of €1,785.3 million ($1,981 million) in 2015.

Visit to learn more about Ipsos’ offerings and capabilities.

Reuters/Ipsos Poll (November 4): Core Political

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Chris Jackson
Vice President, US
Ipsos Public Affairs
Clifford Young
President, US
Ipsos Public Affairs
Julia Clark
Senior Vice President, US
Ipsos Public Affairs