Canadians Would Elect Clinton (51%) over Trump (13%) in Landslide Victory, Most (79%) Believe She Will Win the U.S. Presidency

Yet Only One Half (50%) of Canadians Trust Hillary Clinton

Tuesday, November 08, 2016

Toronto, ON – With the marathon campaign coming to a close and as Americans cast their ballots in an historic election, a new Ipsos poll of Canadians conducted for Global News has revealed that, if Canadians could vote in the election for U.S. President, Hillary Clinton would win in a landslide victory.

Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton would receive 51% of the vote compared to just 13% for Republican nominee Donald Trump. In fact, candidates of other parties would receive a larger share of the vote (17%) than Donald Trump (13%). Two in ten (20%) Canadians say they simply wouldn’t vote, perhaps hinting at a dislike of both candidates. Interestingly, Trump has more supporters among men (17%) than women (8%), while Clinton is more popular among women (58%) than men (43%).

Regardless of who they would vote for, nearly four in five (79%) Canadians believe that Hillary Clinton will win the election, while just one in five (21%) believes that Donald Trump will emerge victorious.

Despite Hillary Clinton’s hypothetical landslide victory over Donald Trump among the Canadian electorate, only one half (50%) of Canadians ‘agree’ (15% strongly/35% somewhat) that they ‘trust Hillary Clinton’, while the other half (50%) ‘disagree’ (26% strongly/24% somewhat). Trust in Hillary Clinton is higher among women (57%) than men (42%), and among those aged 55+ (54%) and 35-54 (52%) than those aged 18-34 (43%).

While these trust scores are lukewarm at best, they still dwarf the amount of trust Canadians have in Donald Trump. Just two in ten (17%) ‘agree’ (7% strongly/10% somewhat) that they ‘trust Donald Trump’, while most (83%) Canadians ‘disagree’, including a staggering 65% who strongly disagree that they trust Trump. Trump’s trust scores are marginally higher among men (20%) than women (14%), but still abysmal.

Regardless of the outcome of the vote, this election will be remembered by both Americans and Canadians as one of the most interesting elections in history, and it is one that has piqued the interest of many Canadians. In fact, a majority (58%) of Canadians ‘agree’ (19% strongly/39% somewhat) that they ‘have been closely following the U.S. presidential election’, while a minority (42%) ‘disagrees (17% strongly/25% somewhat) that they’ve been closely following the election.

In particular, Boomers (66%) have been most likely to be following the campaign, more-so than Gen X (54%) and Millennials (53%). Those in Ontario (63%) appear to be the most engaged, followed by Canadians living in Quebec (58%), British Columbia (56%), Atlantic Canada (53%), Saskatchewan and Manitoba (50%), and Alberta (49%).

These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between October 28 to 31, 2016, on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 1,007 Canadians from Ipsos' online panel was interviewed online. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within ±3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Canadian adults been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.

For more information on this news release, please contact:

Darrell Bricker, PhD
CEO, Global
Ipsos Public Affairs

About Ipsos

Ipsos ranks third in the global research industry. With a strong presence in 87 countries, Ipsos employs more than 16,000 people and has the ability to conduct research programs in more than 100 countries. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos is controlled and managed by research professionals. They have built a solid Group around a multi-specialist positioning—Media and advertising research; Marketing research; Client and employee relationship management; Opinion & social research; Mobile, Online, Offline data collection and delivery. Ipsos has been listed on the Paris Stock Exchange since 1999.

Canadians Would Elect Clinton (51%) over Trump (13%) in Landslide Victory, Most (79%) Believe She Will Win the U.S. Presidency


Darrell Bricker
CEO, Global
Ipsos Public Affairs