FINAL Pre-Election Core Political Daily (11/07/16)

Monday, November 07, 2016

Washington, DC- The final day of our daily updates from the Reuters/Ipsos tracker.

Our last pre-election poll shows Hillary Clinton building back some of the lead lost in the wake of Comey’s initial letter to Congress. This data paired with the state-level data from our final States of the Nation poll mean we put Clinton’s odds at 90% of winning the White House tomorrow.

Ipsos Election Forecast

  • PRESIDENT: Ipsos’ forecast is that Clinton has a 90% chance of winning the Presidency
    • SENATE: Ipsos’ forecast is that the Democrats have a small odds-edge of taking the Senate at 55%
    • HOUSE: Ipsos’ forecast is that the Republicans have 70% odds of holding onto the House of Representatives

General Election Matchup

  • Hillary Clinton continues to lead Donald Trump among likely voters with a current lead of 5 percentage points. Clinton holds 44% of likely voters while Trump is at 39%.
    • Clinton’s lead holds a smaller lead among likely voters on the 4-way ballot with a 3 percentage point margin, which includes Gary Johnson and Jill Stein (Clinton 42%; Trump 39%; Johnson 6%; and Stein 3%).
    • Clinton’s favorability among registered voters is down to 49%.
  • Trump’s favorability scores are also steady at 43%.

Topline results are available for download on the right side of the page.

These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted for Thomson Reuters November 2- November 6, 2016. For the survey, a sample of 3,198 Americans, including 1,463 Democrats, 1,086 Republicans, 370 Independents, 2,756 registered voters and 2,195 likely voters ages 18+ were interviewed online. The precision of the Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 2.0 percentage points for all adults, 2.9 percentage points for Democrats, 3.4 percentage points for Republicans, 5.8 percentage points for Independents, 2.1 percentage points for registered voters and 2.4 percentage points for likely voters. For more information about credibility intervals, please see the appendix.

The data were weighted to the U.S. current population data by gender, age, education, and ethnicity. Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online polls. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error. Figures marked by an asterisk (*) indicate a percentage value of greater than zero but less than one half of one per cent. Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding. To see more information on this and other Reuters/Ipsos polls, please visit

For more information on this news release please contact:

Clifford Young
President, US Public Affairs
Ipsos Public Affairs

Julia Clark
Senior Vice President
Ipsos Public Affairs

Chris Jackson
Vice President
Ipsos Public Affairs

About Ipsos Public Affairs

Ipsos Public Affairs is a non-partisan, objective, survey-based research practice made up of seasoned professionals. We conduct strategic research initiatives for a diverse number of American and international organizations, based not only on public opinion research, but elite stakeholder, corporate, and media opinion research.

Ipsos has media partnerships with the most prestigious news organizations around the world. In Canada, the U.S., UK, and internationally, Ipsos Public Affairs is the media polling supplier to Reuters News, the world's leading source of intelligent information for businesses and professionals. Ipsos Public Affairs is a member of the Ipsos Group, a leading global survey-based market research company. We provide boutique-style customer service and work closely with our clients, while also undertaking global research.

To learn more visit: www.ipsos-

About Ipsos

Ipsos is an independent market research company controlled and managed by research professionals. Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has grown into a worldwide research group with a strong presence in all key markets. Ipsos ranks third in the global research industry.

With offices in 87 countries, Ipsos delivers insightful expertise across five research specializations: brand, advertising and media, customer loyalty, marketing, public affairs research, and survey management.

Ipsos researchers assess market potential and interpret market trends. They develop and build brands. They help clients build long-term relationships with their customers. They test advertising and study audience responses to various media and they measure public opinion around the globe.

Ipsos has been listed on the Paris Stock Exchange since 1999 and generated global revenues of €1,785.3 million ($1,981 million) in 2015.

Visit to learn more about Ipsos’ offerings and capabilities.

FINAL Pre-Election Core Political Daily (11/07/16)

Downloads PDF

Topline Results


Chris Jackson
Vice President, US
Ipsos Public Affairs
Clifford Young
President, US
Ipsos Public Affairs
Julia Clark
Senior Vice President, US
Ipsos Public Affairs