Toronto, ON – Gauging quick reaction to an unprecedented victory by Republican Donald Trump over Democrat Hillary Clinton, a new Ipsos flash poll conducted for Global News has found that just three in ten (30%) Canadians are ‘satisfied’ (9% very/20% somewhat) with the outcome of the U.S. Presidential Election, while most (70%) Canadians are not (47% not at all/24% not very).
Despite the election of Donald J. Trump by the American people (and to some extent the intricacies of the Electoral College system), just three in ten (30%) Canadians ‘agree’ (7% strongly/23% somewhat) that they ‘trust the judgement of the American electorate’, while most (70%) ‘disagree’ (34% strongly/35% somewhat) that they do.
While most don’t agree with Americans’ choice for President, most Canadians can understand one of the fundamental reasons leading to his election: two in three (67%) ‘agree’ (19% strongly/48% somewhat) that they ‘understand the underlying anger in America that eventually led to Donald Trump’s victory’. Yet, one three (33%) ‘disagree’ (12% strongly/21% somewhat) that they understand the dynamic in America that ultimately led to Trump’s election.
The Possibility of Trump North?
With the unprecedented (and unexpected) election of Donald Trump, Canadian politicians might be taking note and adjusting their policies, style and tone accordingly. In fact, nearly eight in ten (77%) Canadians say that ‘if the leader of a major Canadian political party ran on a platform of stricter immigration controls, reviewing trade agreements like NAFTA to ensure they are in Canada's best interest, shifting expenditures from international development in other countries to priorities in Canada, and getting tough on crime’ they would be ‘likely’ (33% very/43% somewhat) to consider voting for such a candidate. In fact, this is steady with the 76% of Canadians who said they’d consider such a candidate in a similar poll released last week before the election. Conversely, 23% say they wouldn’t be likely (6% not at all/17% not very) to consider voting for such a candidate, down 1 point.
It appears that Donald Trump’s message resonated with a frustrated electorate, even though the message he delivered took many Canadians aback. That said, six in ten (60%) Canadians ‘agree’ (17% strongly/42% somewhat) that ‘in Canada we are too politically correct’, suggesting that many Canadians might appreciate a style that is less worried about political correctness. Four in ten (40%) ‘disagree’ (9% strongly/31% somewhat) that we’re too politically correct as a nation.
While most would at least consider a Trump-like candidate, relatively few believe that a candidate such as this would have success in Canada: only one in four (23%) ‘agree’ (7% strongly/16% somewhat) that ‘if someone like Donald Trump ran for Prime Minister in Canada, he would have a good chance of winning’. Most (77%) ‘disagree’ (48% strongly/28% somewhat) that this type of candidate would succeed.
Half (49%) of Canadians Avoiding U.S. Travel, Not Terribly Welcoming to Americans Fleeing a Trump Presidency…
The election of Donald Trump appears to be having an impact on Canadians and their travel plans, as one half (49%) ‘agree’ (21% strongly/28% somewhat) that they ‘will avoid travel to the United States for at least the first few years of the Trump Presidency’. The other half (51%) of Canadians ‘disagree’ (20% strongly/31% somewhat) that the election of Donald Trump will impact their travel plans in such a way.
There has been talk of Americans moving to Canada in an effort to escape a Trump presidency, but most Canadians don’t believe these dodgers should receive special immigration treatment. Six in ten (61%) Canadians ‘disagree’ (23% strongly/38% somewhat) that ‘Canada should make it easier for Americans who want to immigrate to Canada as a result of the election of Donald Trump’, while only four in ten (39%) ‘agree’ (7% strongly/32% somewhat) that we should make it easier.
Anticipated Impact of a Trump Presidency
While four in ten (44%) Canadians believe that the result of the U.S. election is a negative thing for Canada, more believe it is negative for the United States (58%) and the world, overall (56%). The chart below shows proportion of Canadians who believe the election of Trump is positive, neutral or negative on the following:
These are some of the findings of an Ipsos poll conducted between Nov 9 and 10, 2016, on behalf of Global News. For this survey, a sample of 1,001 Canadians from Ipsos' online panel was interviewed online. Weighting was then employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe. The precision of Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll is accurate to within +/ - 3.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Canadian adults been polled. The credibility interval will be wider among subsets of the population. All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.
For more information on this news release, please contact:
Darrell Bricker, PhD
Ipsos Global Public Affairs
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